NBA games

OKC @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
136–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32342545136
CLE27242825104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home CLE
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 30 1 3
Chet Holmgren S 31 28 8 2
Luguentz Dort S 34 18 5 3
Isaiah Joe 25 16 5 2
Aaron Wiggins S 31 12 6 3
Jaylin Williams S 8 6 3 2
Chris Youngblood 3 6 1 0
Ousmane Dieng 5 5 0 1
Ajay Mitchell 25 5 2 9
Kenrich Williams 21 5 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 19 4 3
Evan Mobley S 31 16 7 5
Jarrett Allen S 29 16 9 1
De'Andre Hunter 26 16 9 1
Jaylon Tyson S 33 16 10 4
Craig Porter Jr. 21 9 5 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 26 6 8 1
Tyrese Proctor 15 3 0 1
Lonzo Ball 5 3 0 1
Dean Wade S 17 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE
9%
7 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
9%
8 Dean Wade CLE
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.6 4.2 6.3
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.7 5.9 6.8
3 Evan Mobley CLE 17.5 8.1 4.8
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.9 4.2 3.9
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.8 10.0 1.8
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.4 9.1 2.6
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 13.4 4.2 2.9
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.7 4.4 2.8
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.7 4.2 1.6
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.9 3.9 1.2
11 Alex Caruso OKC 6.9 2.8 1.7
12 Cason Wallace OKC 6.9 3.4 1.8
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.3 2.2 1.1
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.2 4.7 2.3
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.1 3.3 1.3
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.9 4.8 4.3
17 Lonzo Ball CLE 5.7 3.1 2.9
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.6 3.2 1.1
19 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.3 2.8 0.7
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.1 2.5 1.0
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.0 1.4 1.2
22 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.3 1.7 1.0
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.2 1.9 0.7
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.6 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.