NBA games

MIL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
112–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL20342632112
ATL19193438110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ATL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 30 21 17 6
Bobby Portis 24 19 3 1
AJ Green S 42 18 3 1
Myles Turner S 28 14 8 1
Ryan Rollins S 29 14 3 3
Kyle Kuzma S 31 10 1 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 28 9 6 7
Pete Nance 15 5 4 2
Gary Harris 15 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 39 32 6 6
Jalen Johnson S 40 28 16 6
CJ McCollum 24 17 3 3
Dyson Daniels S 30 17 9 10
Asa Newell 12 6 0 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 4 10 4
Luke Kennard 10 2 3 1
Corey Kispert S 20 2 1 1
Mouhamed Gueye 10 2 3 0
Vit Krejci 20 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
6 CJ McCollum ATL
9%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
8 Myles Turner MIL
8%
9 Ryan Rollins MIL
7%
10 AJ Green MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
7%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.0 9.2 5.1
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.5 9.0 6.9
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.4 4.3 4.5
4 CJ McCollum ATL 19.5 4.4 4.2
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 19.4 8.4 4.6
6 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 16.0 5.4 7.4
7 Ryan Rollins MIL 14.7 5.7 5.0
8 Bobby Portis MIL 13.6 6.4 1.6
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.5 7.4 6.9
10 Myles Turner MIL 11.7 4.6 1.6
11 Kyle Kuzma MIL 10.1 3.7 1.9
12 Corey Kispert ATL 9.8 2.8 1.7
13 AJ Green MIL 9.3 2.3 1.8
14 Luke Kennard ATL 9.0 2.3 2.1
15 Vit Krejci ATL 7.8 2.8 1.8
16 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.1 1.3 1.3
17 Asa Newell ATL 4.9 2.4 0.9
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.8 4.2 1.6
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.7 1.5 1.2
20 Jericho Sims MIL 4.4 3.7 0.9
21 Gary Harris MIL 4.1 1.6 0.9
22 Cole Anthony MIL 3.6 1.7 1.4
23 Christian Koloko ATL 3.5 4.1 0.8
24 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.3 1.3 0.7
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.2 1.2 0.9
26 Amir Coffey MIL 2.9 1.1 0.5
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.5 1.3 0.5
28 Pete Nance MIL 2.5 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.