NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
127–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN34234525127
MIN30352920114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (MIN) / 7 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 43 6 3
Nikola Jokic S 36 25 19 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 20 1 3
Peyton Watson 25 12 2 1
Aaron Gordon S 33 9 3 3
Christian Braun S 27 7 3 2
Cameron Johnson S 19 5 2 2
Jonas Valanciunas 10 4 4 0
Bruce Brown 13 2 5 0
Hunter Tyson 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 35 25 3 1
Julius Randle S 35 24 7 3
Naz Reid 27 18 7 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 12 3 4
Mike Conley S 26 10 3 4
Terrence Shannon Jr. 25 9 3 1
Rudy Gobert S 26 8 5 1
Bones Hyland 16 4 2 1
Rob Dillingham 12 4 0 2
Leonard Miller 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 1-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
18%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Cameron Johnson DEN
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Christian Braun DEN
9%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
10 Hunter Tyson DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
45%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 23.7 6.2 4.5
2 Aaron Gordon DEN 20.9 5.0 2.1
3 Jamal Murray DEN 20.8 3.8 4.9
4 Nikola Jokic DEN 19.2 9.5 7.1
5 Christian Braun DEN 12.6 3.6 2.5
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.2 4.1 1.4
7 Rob Dillingham MIN 10.2 2.1 5.5
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.5 8.1 1.5
9 Leonard Miller MIN 9.5 4.7 1.7
10 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 9.3 3.5 3.3
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.0 2.9 2.7
12 Johnny Juzang MIN 8.9 3.6 1.0
13 Cameron Johnson DEN 8.8 2.9 1.4
14 Naz Reid MIN 8.8 4.4 1.5
15 Peyton Watson DEN 8.0 3.6 1.7
16 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.1 4.5 1.4
17 Bones Hyland MIN 6.8 2.2 2.2
18 Joan Beringer MIN 6.5 5.0 0.8
19 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 6.4 1.8 1.1
20 Bruce Brown DEN 6.1 2.8 1.7
21 Julian Strawther DEN 6.0 3.0 0.8
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.2 1.5 1.2
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.1 2.1 1.1
24 Mike Conley MIN 4.7 1.6 2.2
25 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.3 1.5 0.6
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.1 1.6 0.6
27 Spencer Jones DEN 2.3 1.2 0.4
28 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.1 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.