NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
116–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE33302726116
DET2417252995

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (DET) / 7 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 29 35 1 2
Jarrett Allen S 25 20 7 2
Evan Mobley S 30 15 11 5
De'Andre Hunter S 24 13 5 6
Sam Merrill S 18 11 1 1
Dean Wade 20 5 6 2
Craig Porter Jr. 24 4 7 3
Thomas Bryant 7 4 2 0
Larry Nance Jr. 18 3 4 2
Tyrese Proctor 10 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 29 12 5 4
Ronald Holland II 26 11 4 1
Tolu Smith 6 11 4 0
Tobias Harris S 18 10 3 1
Daniss Jenkins 22 9 0 5
Duncan Robinson S 26 8 0 1
Jalen Duren S 21 8 7 2
Ausar Thompson S 15 6 3 0
Chaz Lanier 12 6 1 0
Paul Reed 8 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 4-foot alley oop dunk shot (De'Andre Hunter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE
10%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
8 Tobias Harris DET
9%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
38%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
8%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.5 5.2 8.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.7 3.6 4.7
3 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 7.4 4.2
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE 17.1 4.0 2.3
5 Sam Merrill CLE 15.4 2.8 2.4
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.7 6.6 3.1
7 Jalen Duren DET 14.1 9.1 1.4
8 Ausar Thompson DET 13.8 7.0 3.4
9 Ronald Holland II DET 10.5 3.4 2.8
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 10.2 6.5 1.6
11 Duncan Robinson DET 9.7 3.2 1.7
12 Daniss Jenkins DET 9.1 1.8 2.9
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.6 5.2 0.8
14 Jaylon Tyson CLE 7.5 2.9 1.9
15 Dean Wade CLE 7.4 3.3 1.3
16 Paul Reed DET 7.4 6.2 1.3
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 7.0 1.2 2.2
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.9 2.8 1.8
19 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 6.7 4.1 1.5
20 Chaz Lanier DET 6.3 1.7 1.3
21 Javonte Green DET 5.2 2.5 0.9
22 Bobi Klintman DET 4.1 2.0 1.0
23 Tolu Smith DET 3.9 4.0 0.7
24 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.5 1.4 0.8
25 Luke Travers CLE 3.4 1.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.