NBA games

GS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
119–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS28273529119
LAL22322530109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (LAL) / 5 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 35 31 5 4
Stephen Curry S 32 23 1 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 33 17 9 6
Buddy Hield 22 17 1 0
Draymond Green S 28 8 7 9
Brandin Podziemski S 33 7 7 2
Gary Payton II 12 6 2 1
Will Richard 14 5 1 1
Al Horford 20 5 5 1
Gui Santos 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 43 12 9
Austin Reaves S 36 26 5 9
Deandre Ayton S 34 10 6 0
Marcus Smart 23 9 0 0
Rui Hachimura S 35 9 4 3
Jake LaRavia 16 5 3 0
Jaxson Hayes 14 4 6 1
Gabe Vincent S 29 3 0 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 12 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
14%
2 Rui Hachimura LAL
14%
3 Deandre Ayton LAL
13%
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
5 Stephen Curry GS
9%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
7 Gabe Vincent LAL
8%
8 Al Horford GS
8%
9 Will Richard GS
8%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
43%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Austin Reaves LAL 21.2 4.6 4.4
2 Stephen Curry GS 19.1 4.0 4.1
3 Gabe Vincent LAL 16.1 2.0 3.3
4 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.8 3.5 1.7
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.2 9.3 1.8
6 Dalton Knecht LAL 10.0 3.9 1.9
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.6 2.8 4.0
8 Quinten Post GS 9.6 3.6 1.4
9 Buddy Hield GS 9.0 3.3 1.8
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.7 3.3 2.8
11 Will Richard GS 8.3 2.8 1.9
12 Pat Spencer GS 7.9 2.6 2.7
13 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.1 3.4 3.7
14 Gary Payton II GS 7.0 1.9 0.6
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.0 5.9 1.3
16 Bronny James LAL 6.9 2.9 1.7
17 Draymond Green GS 6.5 2.4 3.7
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.4 5.5 1.3
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.2 4.2 1.7
20 Al Horford GS 5.4 2.6 1.5
21 Gui Santos GS 5.3 2.5 1.6
22 Christian Koloko LAL 3.7 4.0 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.