NBA games

HOU @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
124–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
HOU30272225119124
OKC272424291110125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (OKC) / 4 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home OKC
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 49 39 11 7
Kevin Durant S 47 23 9 3
Amen Thompson S 39 18 4 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 42 16 5 0
Reed Sheppard 28 9 2 4
Josh Okogie 20 8 2 1
Clint Capela 8 4 0 0
Steven Adams S 37 4 13 3
Tari Eason 22 3 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 47 35 5 5
Chet Holmgren S 39 28 7 2
Ajay Mitchell 15 16 2 2
Cason Wallace S 42 14 7 5
Aaron Wiggins 21 10 1 1
Alex Caruso 30 8 2 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 37 6 8 5
Luguentz Dort S 45 6 6 5
Jaylin Williams 13 2 0 1
Brooks Barnhizer 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot layup (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
5 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
6 Alex Caruso OKC
9%
7 Aaron Holiday HOU
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
8%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
17%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 20.8 3.7 5.8
2 Amen Thompson HOU 20.5 5.2 4.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.9 8.7 7.9
4 Reed Sheppard HOU 16.4 4.5 3.2
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.3 4.7 1.5
6 Ousmane Dieng OKC 12.2 4.8 3.6
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.0 3.9 4.3
8 Josh Okogie HOU 11.7 3.7 1.4
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.3 4.5 1.6
10 Jaylin Williams OKC 11.1 4.3 2.0
11 Chris Youngblood OKC 10.7 3.0 1.6
12 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 10.3 6.1 2.0
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 10.2 2.8 2.8
14 JD Davison HOU 9.3 2.6 3.0
15 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.0 4.8 1.9
16 Cason Wallace OKC 8.9 4.5 4.6
17 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.6 2.9 1.3
18 Alex Caruso OKC 7.0 1.5 1.2
19 Clint Capela HOU 6.9 5.8 0.9
20 Jeff Green HOU 5.9 3.7 0.8
21 Kevon Harris HOU 5.6 3.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.