NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
138–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIN2926233723138
DEN3225352327142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 42 44 6 3
Julius Randle S 39 32 7 6
Jaden McDaniels S 40 21 4 4
Naz Reid 28 13 6 3
Bones Hyland 23 11 4 5
Rudy Gobert S 34 9 12 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 34 6 8 8
Jaylen Clark 5 2 0 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 10 0 0 0
Mike Conley 10 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 43 56 16 15
Jamal Murray S 42 35 2 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 41 19 4 0
Spencer Jones S 41 12 8 1
Peyton Watson S 42 9 4 0
Bruce Brown 28 7 3 3
Jonas Valanciunas 10 2 4 1
Zeke Nnaji 5 2 1 0
Julian Strawther 12 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Spencer Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
20%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Julius Randle MIN
10%
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
7 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
8 Jamal Murray DEN
7%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
8%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.3 11.0 10.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.8 5.8 4.7
3 Jamal Murray DEN 27.0 4.5 7.2
4 Julius Randle MIN 23.5 6.5 5.2
5 Naz Reid MIN 16.1 7.1 3.5
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.1 4.6 3.2
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.5 4.7 4.5
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.9 11.2 2.4
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.5 2.9 1.7
10 Peyton Watson DEN 12.2 4.8 1.6
11 Bruce Brown DEN 10.4 4.9 1.9
12 Spencer Jones DEN 9.4 3.2 1.4
13 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.4 4.7 1.2
14 Bones Hyland MIN 8.1 2.2 2.7
15 Mike Conley MIN 5.7 2.3 2.6
16 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.2 1.7 0.9
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.7 2.1 1.7
18 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.3 1.4 0.8
19 Julian Strawther DEN 3.9 1.5 0.7
20 Joan Beringer MIN 3.5 2.1 0.6
21 Curtis Jones DEN 3.4 1.2 0.8
22 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.0 1.3 0.6
23 Leonard Miller MIN 2.8 1.1 0.6
24 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.8 1.1 0.4
25 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.7 1.4 1.5
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.6 0.9 1.6
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.6 0.5
28 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.