NBA games

HOU @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
119–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU37262927119
LAL2528212296

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 32 26 7 5
Kevin Durant S 33 25 4 8
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 16 7 0
Alperen Sengun S 31 14 12 4
Reed Sheppard 19 13 2 1
Tari Eason S 26 13 3 2
Clint Capela 3 6 3 0
Steven Adams 26 4 9 2
Jae'Sean Tate 3 2 0 0
Josh Okogie 10 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 34 25 5 7
LeBron James S 32 18 2 5
Austin Reaves S 15 12 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 26 11 5 2
Deandre Ayton S 36 10 2 0
Marcus Smart 29 6 2 1
Jake LaRavia 23 5 4 1
Bronny James 3 3 0 0
Dalton Knecht 3 2 0 0
Adou Thiero 3 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tari Eason · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Tari Eason makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
6 Luka Doncic LAL
9%
7 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
35%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.7 7.8 8.8
2 Kevin Durant HOU 25.9 5.0 5.9
3 Austin Reaves LAL 25.9 5.4 5.4
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.3 9.0 6.9
5 LeBron James LAL 23.6 5.4 6.4
6 Amen Thompson HOU 20.7 7.9 5.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.0 6.9 2.7
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.9 9.0 1.2
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.4 3.5 3.5
10 Marcus Smart LAL 11.4 2.9 2.2
11 Tari Eason HOU 11.4 4.6 1.7
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.8 3.3 0.8
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.4 4.1 1.7
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.9 2.0 1.4
15 Josh Okogie HOU 7.4 3.7 1.5
16 Steven Adams HOU 6.5 7.0 1.4
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.9 5.1 1.2
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.5 2.1 1.0
19 Clint Capela HOU 4.2 4.1 0.7
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.8 1.6 0.6
21 Bronny James LAL 3.4 1.1 1.1
22 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.3 1.7 0.6
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.2 1.2 0.7
24 JD Davison HOU 2.7 1.1 1.0
25 Adou Thiero LAL 2.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.