NBA games

DAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
116–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL28303127116
GS40312926126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home GS
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 36 27 6 5
Brandon Williams 30 26 3 3
P.J. Washington S 34 14 10 2
Naji Marshall S 28 14 4 0
Max Christie 34 13 6 3
Klay Thompson 26 7 2 2
Daniel Gafford 15 6 5 0
Ryan Nembhard S 17 4 1 2
Anthony Davis S 11 3 3 0
Caleb Martin 9 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 23 3 4
De'Anthony Melton 24 16 3 3
Al Horford 11 14 4 2
Jimmy Butler III S 32 14 9 9
Brandin Podziemski 28 13 8 4
Moses Moody S 30 12 2 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 13 10 5 0
Draymond Green S 28 7 5 3
Quinten Post S 14 6 3 0
Gary Payton II 15 6 5 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quinten Post · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Quinten Post makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
30%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
9%
3 Anthony Davis DAL
9%
4 Jimmy Butler III GS
8%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
7 Draymond Green GS
6%
8 Ryan Nembhard DAL
5%
9 Quinten Post GS
5%
10 Al Horford GS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
7%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 28.0 5.3 5.9
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 24.7 6.6 4.7
3 Anthony Davis DAL 22.9 11.5 3.6
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.2 5.1 5.2
5 P.J. Washington DAL 17.6 8.3 1.9
6 Naji Marshall DAL 17.1 4.1 3.2
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.3 4.4 4.5
8 Ryan Nembhard DAL 11.5 3.0 6.5
9 Draymond Green GS 11.3 6.7 4.4
10 Klay Thompson DAL 10.4 2.9 1.4
11 Quinten Post GS 10.2 5.4 2.2
12 Moses Moody GS 9.9 3.5 1.9
13 Brandon Williams DAL 9.9 2.7 3.7
14 Pat Spencer GS 9.1 2.7 3.4
15 Max Christie DAL 8.3 2.5 1.1
16 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.3 5.2 1.9
17 Buddy Hield GS 7.8 3.5 1.5
18 D'Angelo Russell DAL 7.7 2.0 2.6
19 Will Richard GS 7.3 3.2 1.1
20 De'Anthony Melton GS 6.5 1.9 1.9
21 Gary Payton II GS 5.7 3.2 1.9
22 Daniel Gafford DAL 5.7 5.9 1.1
23 Al Horford GS 5.1 3.6 1.7
24 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.5 0.8
25 Gui Santos GS 5.0 2.3 1.4
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.5 4.2 1.0
27 Caleb Martin DAL 3.0 2.0 0.9
28 Dwight Powell DAL 2.8 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.