NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
117–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA41282622117
OKC36241923102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 29 4 3
Victor Wembanyama 26 19 11 2
Stephon Castle S 32 19 4 7
Harrison Barnes S 30 15 6 1
Dylan Harper 20 12 3 2
Keldon Johnson 17 9 7 0
Luke Kornet S 22 6 4 1
Devin Vassell S 34 5 4 2
Jordan McLaughlin 1 3 0 0
Julian Champagnie 20 0 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 22 6 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 13 12 3
Alex Caruso 20 12 1 0
Jalen Williams S 29 12 2 6
Chet Holmgren S 31 10 12 2
Kenrich Williams 17 8 5 2
Luguentz Dort S 29 8 4 3
Isaiah Joe 15 5 1 2
Aaron Wiggins 14 5 1 0
Cason Wallace 21 5 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Stephon Castle SA
11%
5 Luke Kornet SA
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
10 Devin Vassell SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
16%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 4.5 6.9
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.1 10.8 3.9
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.2 5.8 5.6
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.0 4.8 6.4
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.6 4.1 6.4
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.1 7.2 1.7
7 Devin Vassell SA 15.1 4.8 2.5
8 Dylan Harper SA 11.9 3.8 3.9
9 Harrison Barnes SA 11.5 3.1 1.8
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.9 9.9 2.8
11 Keldon Johnson SA 10.6 5.4 1.1
12 Luke Kornet SA 9.5 7.4 1.5
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.2 3.4 1.3
14 Julian Champagnie SA 9.1 5.2 1.6
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.1 2.5 1.6
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.7 2.8 1.6
17 Cason Wallace OKC 7.3 3.0 1.8
18 Alex Caruso OKC 6.4 3.9 2.1
19 Branden Carlson OKC 6.2 2.6 1.0
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.1 2.6 1.7
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.1 1.9 0.9
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.7 1.4 1.0
23 Jeremy Sochan SA 3.6 2.8 0.6
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.6 1.8 0.7
25 Carter Bryant SA 3.5 2.1 0.6
26 Lindy Waters III SA 3.2 1.4 0.5
27 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 3.2 2.3 0.8
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.4 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.