NBA games

CLE @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
124–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE38203828124
NY23372442126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NY
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 34 7 6
Darius Garland S 36 20 1 10
Jaylon Tyson 20 16 6 1
Evan Mobley 25 14 9 3
De'Andre Hunter 27 13 3 2
Sam Merrill S 29 11 5 1
Jarrett Allen S 23 7 8 2
Dean Wade S 29 6 4 2
Thomas Bryant 3 3 1 0
Lonzo Ball 14 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 34 1 4
Jordan Clarkson 29 25 1 2
Tyler Kolek 25 16 3 9
Josh Hart S 26 15 5 3
Mikal Bridges S 36 12 3 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 11 14 1
OG Anunoby S 33 8 2 2
Mohamed Diawara 4 5 1 1
Mitchell Robinson 17 0 13 2
Ariel Hukporti 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
3 OG Anunoby NY
9%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
5 Darius Garland CLE
8%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
8%
8 Donovan Mitchell CLE
7%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
11%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.1 3.8 7.5
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.5 4.4 6.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.5 10.6 2.8
4 Evan Mobley CLE 20.2 9.3 3.9
5 Darius Garland CLE 20.2 3.5 7.1
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.5 4.9 3.8
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 15.7 6.4 2.5
8 OG Anunoby NY 15.5 4.8 2.1
9 Josh Hart NY 15.1 8.7 5.5
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.9 7.0 2.2
11 Sam Merrill CLE 11.6 2.8 2.9
12 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.6 3.5 1.4
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.6 2.7 1.6
14 Tyler Kolek NY 8.8 3.7 4.1
15 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.7 3.9 0.9
16 Dean Wade CLE 7.6 4.2 1.8
17 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.7 4.4 4.1
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.3 9.3 1.3
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.8 3.4 1.0
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.1 2.0 1.3
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.9 3.3 1.9
22 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 3.3 1.4 0.8
23 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.2 1.4 0.9
24 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.1 1.5 0.5
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.8 3.2 0.7
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.5 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.