NBA games

DEN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
131–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DEN3139242611131
GS2734332617137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (GS) / 5 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home GS
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 39 50 8 2
Jamal Murray S 40 25 3 10
Nikola Jokic S 41 21 13 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. 22 10 2 0
Jonas Valanciunas 12 8 3 2
Christian Braun S 38 6 4 2
Cameron Johnson S 32 5 3 2
Bruce Brown 19 4 5 3
Peyton Watson 16 2 2 1
Spencer Jones 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 37 42 6 7
Jimmy Butler III S 39 21 5 6
Jonathan Kuminga S 36 14 5 3
Al Horford 29 13 3 2
Draymond Green S 34 13 8 8
Brandin Podziemski S 34 11 3 1
Buddy Hield 23 11 2 2
Gary Payton II 12 6 6 1
Will Richard 17 6 5 3
Quinten Post 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
4 Stephen Curry GS
8%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
6 Jonas Valanciunas DEN
7%
7 Peyton Watson DEN
6%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
6%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
6%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
9%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 19.9 3.8 4.2
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 18.8 4.2 3.3
3 Jamal Murray DEN 17.4 2.7 3.1
4 Nikola Jokic DEN 16.7 7.3 4.8
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.5 4.6 1.6
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.6 3.4 3.6
7 Buddy Hield GS 10.3 3.1 1.8
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.1 4.6 4.5
9 Christian Braun DEN 9.8 3.0 2.2
10 Peyton Watson DEN 9.1 3.8 1.7
11 Will Richard GS 8.3 2.7 1.8
12 Quinten Post GS 8.0 3.2 1.4
13 Draymond Green GS 7.8 3.5 4.7
14 Pat Spencer GS 7.8 2.5 2.5
15 Gary Payton II GS 7.5 2.1 0.8
16 Cameron Johnson DEN 7.4 2.5 1.2
17 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.4 4.2 1.2
18 Julian Strawther DEN 6.4 3.1 0.7
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.2 5.4 1.2
20 Al Horford GS 6.1 3.3 1.7
21 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 5.6 1.8 1.1
22 Bruce Brown DEN 5.1 2.2 1.2
23 Gui Santos GS 5.0 2.3 1.4
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.9 1.8 1.3
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.7 1.2 0.8
26 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.7 1.2 0.4
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.5 1.7 0.4
28 Spencer Jones DEN 1.6 1.3 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.