NBA games

OKC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
141–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
OKC223227321117141
IND252231351111135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (IND) / 7 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home IND
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 45 55 8 5
Ajay Mitchell 38 26 3 4
Aaron Wiggins S 36 23 9 0
Chet Holmgren S 39 15 12 2
Luguentz Dort S 43 7 8 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 37 5 14 2
Jaylin Williams 15 5 2 2
Chris Youngblood 6 3 0 0
Brooks Barnhizer 14 2 3 0
Branden Carlson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 45 36 11 1
Pascal Siakam S 44 32 15 4
Obi Toppin 40 20 5 3
Ben Sheppard 39 15 8 4
Jarace Walker 30 13 4 4
Aaron Nesmith S 27 5 7 0
Jay Huff 12 5 3 0
Andrew Nembhard S 17 4 1 4
Taelon Peter 17 3 0 1
Tony Bradley 10 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
3 Luguentz Dort OKC
14%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
12%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
6 Isaiah Jackson IND
12%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
11%
9 Jaylin Williams OKC
0%
10 Ousmane Dieng OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
36%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
16%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 4.5 5.2
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.3 4.8 1.3
3 Jarace Walker IND 12.3 5.1 3.4
4 Pascal Siakam IND 12.2 3.2 3.2
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.5 3.4 2.9
6 Ousmane Dieng OKC 11.3 4.5 2.5
7 Taelon Peter IND 10.4 4.1 2.8
8 Chris Youngblood OKC 9.8 2.8 1.2
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.1 5.5 2.2
10 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 9.1 5.2 1.4
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.0 2.3 4.5
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.5 3.5 1.3
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.5 2.3 1.4
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.9 3.5 1.6
15 Branden Carlson OKC 7.5 4.8 0.7
16 RayJ Dennis IND 6.5 1.4 2.4
17 Obi Toppin IND 5.5 2.5 1.8
18 Jay Huff IND 5.1 3.1 0.8
19 James Wiseman IND 4.7 2.6 0.5
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.2 2.5 0.5
21 Tony Bradley IND 2.3 2.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.