NBA games

SA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
125–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA28323332125
DAL2922212092

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (DAL) / 5 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 30 40 15 1
Stephon Castle S 29 22 7 6
Dylan Harper 23 15 4 2
Devin Vassell S 31 13 3 4
Keldon Johnson 25 11 5 2
Harrison Barnes S 30 7 2 1
Julian Champagnie S 25 5 4 2
David Jones Garcia 4 5 1 2
Harrison Ingram 4 3 1 0
Jordan McLaughlin 8 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 32 22 13 1
P.J. Washington S 29 17 5 1
Klay Thompson S 22 10 2 1
Cooper Flagg S 32 10 10 0
Max Christie 26 9 0 1
Ryan Nembhard 16 8 0 5
D'Angelo Russell 15 6 2 3
Dereck Lively II S 10 4 2 3
Naji Marshall 23 3 1 1
Jaden Hardy 7 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes 2-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
17%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
3 Klay Thompson DAL
12%
4 Devin Vassell SA
12%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
7 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
26%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.4 9.9 3.9
2 Anthony Davis DAL 15.5 6.7 1.6
3 Keldon Johnson SA 12.7 3.8 1.0
4 Devin Vassell SA 12.2 4.4 2.5
5 Luke Kornet SA 10.7 7.0 1.5
6 Cooper Flagg DAL 10.5 4.2 2.3
7 P.J. Washington DAL 10.3 4.0 2.6
8 Julian Champagnie SA 9.9 2.8 1.5
9 Dylan Harper SA 8.8 1.7 4.0
10 Naji Marshall DAL 8.2 2.6 1.9
11 Carter Bryant SA 7.7 2.8 1.2
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.9 2.2 1.2
13 Klay Thompson DAL 6.5 1.2 0.5
14 Max Christie DAL 6.0 1.1 1.3
15 D'Angelo Russell DAL 5.9 2.4 3.3
16 Dereck Lively II DAL 5.8 6.3 0.9
17 David Jones Garcia SA 5.3 2.4 1.9
18 Harrison Barnes SA 5.2 2.0 1.5
19 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.1 2.0 3.9
20 Dwight Powell DAL 4.1 3.7 0.9
21 Harrison Ingram SA 3.0 2.4 0.6
22 Riley Minix SA 2.3 1.3 1.0
23 Moussa Cisse DAL 1.7 3.9 0.3
24 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 2.2 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.