NBA games

CLE @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
111119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE23273724111
NY33322232119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (NY) / 4 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NY
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 31 2 5
Evan Mobley S 36 22 8 3
Sam Merrill S 28 19 3 1
Larry Nance Jr. 17 10 6 1
Dean Wade 28 10 2 0
Jaylon Tyson S 20 5 2 1
Tyrese Proctor 16 5 1 2
Jarrett Allen S 28 4 4 1
Lonzo Ball 23 3 4 6
Craig Porter Jr. 7 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 38 24 14 2
Jalen Brunson S 34 23 4 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 19 11 2
Mikal Bridges S 33 16 5 6
Miles McBride 26 15 2 1
Landry Shamet 14 9 2 1
Tyler Kolek 14 7 1 2
Jordan Clarkson 13 4 1 1
Ariel Hukporti S 18 2 5 2
Trey Jemison III 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
6 Trey Jemison III NY
9%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Jordan Clarkson NY
9%
9 Mohamed Diawara NY
9%
10 Pacome Dadiet NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
38%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 18.5 3.8 4.3
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 17.0 3.9 3.3
3 Evan Mobley CLE 15.1 6.3 3.3
4 Mikal Bridges NY 13.6 4.7 2.1
5 Miles McBride NY 10.3 2.9 2.4
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 9.6 5.8 1.3
7 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.6 2.1 1.7
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE 8.3 3.1 2.4
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 7.5 5.7 1.1
10 Tyrese Proctor CLE 7.3 1.3 2.4
11 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.0 3.4 2.1
12 Tyler Kolek NY 6.9 1.9 2.0
13 Dean Wade CLE 5.9 3.1 1.3
14 Pacome Dadiet NY 5.7 2.1 0.7
15 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 5.3 3.8 1.5
16 Guerschon Yabusele NY 5.1 2.7 1.0
17 Landry Shamet NY 5.0 1.1 0.8
18 Lonzo Ball CLE 4.7 2.4 3.5
19 Ariel Hukporti NY 4.5 4.2 0.7
20 Trey Jemison III NY 4.5 3.5 0.8
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.2 1.6 0.4
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.8 1.6 0.7
23 Luke Travers CLE 3.6 1.9 0.8
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.4 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.