NBA games

MIN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
94–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN923303294
OKC26392336124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home OKC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 31 24 5 3
Anthony Edwards S 39 19 6 2
Naz Reid 24 11 5 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 16 11 1 0
Rob Dillingham 7 7 1 2
Donte DiVincenzo 22 6 6 2
Jaden McDaniels S 21 5 5 1
Luka Garza 7 4 2 0
Josh Minott 7 3 0 1
Jaylen Clark 7 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 34 7 8
Chet Holmgren S 30 22 7 0
Jalen Williams S 32 19 8 5
Luguentz Dort S 38 12 4 1
Isaiah Joe 6 11 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 17 8 5 0
Alex Caruso 24 8 3 3
Cason Wallace 24 5 2 3
Ousmane Dieng 4 3 0 2
Ajay Mitchell 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
6%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
91%
Jumper
2%
Layup
4%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.9 5.3 7.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.6 7.6 5.8
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.8 6.2 5.3
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.9 5.4 5.7
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.8 8.5 1.6
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.3 5.2 1.7
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.1 9.8 1.0
8 Naz Reid MIN 10.1 4.9 1.9
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.1 2.8 3.5
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.5 2.4 2.3
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.3 7.3 1.8
12 Alex Caruso OKC 8.3 2.0 1.5
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.9 3.1 1.4
14 Mike Conley MIN 7.6 2.9 3.5
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.1 2.8 2.5
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.1 3.3 1.1
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.5 2.4 0.8
18 Ajay Mitchell OKC 4.1 0.8 0.8
19 Isaiah Joe OKC 3.9 1.7 0.7
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.6 2.0 0.7
21 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.2 1.3 0.6
22 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.2 1.4
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 2.6 1.4 0.8
24 Luka Garza MIN 2.5 0.7 0.4
25 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.5 1.0 0.4
26 Josh Minott MIN 2.4 0.7 0.4
27 Leonard Miller MIN 2.1 0.9 0.2
28 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.6 1.0 0.4
29 Rob Dillingham MIN 1.4 0.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.