NBA games

OKC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
128–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC37282538128
MIN30272841126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIN
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 40 40 9 10
Jalen Williams S 39 34 3 5
Chet Holmgren S 33 21 7 1
Alex Caruso 33 10 2 1
Cason Wallace 28 7 3 3
Kenrich Williams 12 5 2 0
Isaiah Joe 8 5 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 30 4 4 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 16 2 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 29 23 4 6
Jaden McDaniels S 31 22 4 2
Donte DiVincenzo 28 21 3 5
Anthony Edwards S 41 16 4 6
Rudy Gobert S 32 13 9 3
Naz Reid 23 11 6 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 8 9 2 0
Mike Conley S 19 6 2 3
Julius Randle S 28 5 7 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes 23-foot three point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
10%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.6 5.5 6.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.5 8.3 6.0
3 Julius Randle MIN 23.9 6.1 5.4
4 Jalen Williams OKC 18.9 5.7 5.2
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.3 8.8 1.6
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.3 5.9 1.8
7 Naz Reid MIN 10.1 4.7 2.0
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.0 7.5 1.7
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.8 9.7 0.9
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.4 2.7 3.5
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.8 2.2 1.9
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.5 3.0 1.4
13 Alex Caruso OKC 8.0 2.1 1.9
14 Mike Conley MIN 8.0 2.9 3.3
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.8 3.5 1.3
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.5 2.7 2.4
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.3 2.6 1.0
18 Ajay Mitchell OKC 4.8 1.1 1.0
19 Dillon Jones OKC 4.4 2.4 0.9
20 Isaiah Joe OKC 3.6 1.9 0.8
21 Luka Garza MIN 3.5 1.1 0.6
22 Josh Minott MIN 3.4 1.1 0.6
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.3 1.8 1.0
24 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.3 1.4 0.6
25 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.2 1.4
26 Leonard Miller MIN 3.0 1.3 0.5
27 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.9 1.4 0.7
28 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.5 1.4 0.6
29 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.3 1.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.