NBA games

OKC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
101–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC14272931101
MIN34383536143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIN
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ajay Mitchell 19 14 0 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 14 2 6
Jalen Williams S 25 13 4 2
Dillon Jones 10 10 3 1
Chet Holmgren S 21 10 5 2
Kenrich Williams 14 8 0 1
Luguentz Dort S 22 6 1 0
Ousmane Dieng 7 6 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 19 6 6 0
Aaron Wiggins 16 5 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 30 30 9 6
Julius Randle S 30 24 4 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 13 15 2 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 18 12 3 2
Leonard Miller 8 11 3 0
Jaden McDaniels S 26 10 6 4
Naz Reid 19 10 8 2
Rudy Gobert S 28 7 7 2
Luka Garza 5 7 0 0
Mike Conley S 22 6 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes alley oop dunk shot (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 5.8 6.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.0 8.1 6.0
3 Julius Randle MIN 23.8 6.1 5.6
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.6 5.8 5.6
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.5 5.9 1.7
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.4 8.8 1.6
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.7 8.2 1.8
8 Naz Reid MIN 10.4 4.6 1.9
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.8 9.7 0.9
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.8 3.2 3.6
11 Alex Caruso OKC 9.2 2.4 2.4
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.5 3.0 1.4
13 Mike Conley MIN 8.1 2.9 3.5
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.1 2.1 1.8
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.5 2.8 2.4
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.3 3.5 1.2
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.3 2.8 0.9
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 3.9 1.5 0.8
19 Ajay Mitchell OKC 3.8 0.9 0.9
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.2 2.3 0.7
21 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.2 1.4
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.5 0.7 0.5
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.4 1.0 0.4
24 Luka Garza MIN 2.4 0.8 0.4
25 Jaylin Williams OKC 2.3 1.2 0.6
26 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.7 0.8 0.4
27 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.5 0.7 0.4
28 Rob Dillingham MIN 1.5 0.6 0.4
29 Leonard Miller MIN 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.