NBA games

MIN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
103–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN25252132103
OKC29293525118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home OKC
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 32 9 6
Jaden McDaniels S 35 22 2 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 17 2 2
Naz Reid 28 10 8 0
Donte DiVincenzo 22 8 3 3
Julius Randle S 32 6 5 5
Rudy Gobert S 30 5 9 1
Mike Conley S 28 3 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 42 38 3 8
Jalen Williams S 39 26 10 5
Chet Holmgren S 32 22 4 2
Luguentz Dort S 35 9 8 4
Alex Caruso 24 9 2 2
Cason Wallace 28 8 3 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 6 8 2
Isaiah Joe 3 0 1 1
Aaron Wiggins 10 0 2 2
Kenrich Williams 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Julius Randle MIN
10%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
21%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.5 5.9 6.8
2 Julius Randle MIN 24.7 6.0 5.8
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.1 7.9 5.4
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.6 5.6 5.7
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.1 8.9 1.5
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.6 6.3 1.8
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.9 7.8 2.2
8 Naz Reid MIN 9.9 4.0 2.0
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.6 9.2 0.8
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.5 3.2 3.4
11 Alex Caruso OKC 9.5 2.7 2.6
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.0 2.9 1.2
13 Mike Conley MIN 7.7 3.2 3.2
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.8 2.1 1.8
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.8 3.4 1.3
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.6 2.8 2.4
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.4 2.7 0.9
18 Ajay Mitchell OKC 4.9 1.2 1.1
19 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.5 1.5 0.9
20 Branden Carlson OKC 4.4 2.3 0.6
21 Bones Hyland MIN 4.2 1.3 1.3
22 Dillon Jones OKC 4.0 2.6 0.9
23 Jesse Edwards MIN 3.9 1.9 0.7
24 Adam Flagler OKC 3.5 1.7 1.0
25 Josh Minott MIN 3.3 1.1 0.6
26 Tristen Newton MIN 3.2 1.4 1.3
27 Luka Garza MIN 3.2 1.2 0.6
28 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.2 1.4 0.6
29 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.2 1.4
30 Alex Ducas OKC 2.6 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.