NBA games

MIN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
88–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN2325182288
OKC20243238114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home OKC
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 36 28 8 1
Anthony Edwards S 37 18 9 3
Donte DiVincenzo 30 9 1 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28 8 2 0
Mike Conley S 23 7 3 3
Jaden McDaniels S 24 7 6 3
Naz Reid 28 4 8 4
Jaylen Clark 6 3 2 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 2 2 0 0
Rudy Gobert S 21 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 31 5 9
Jalen Williams S 33 19 8 5
Chet Holmgren S 26 15 7 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 12 5 0
Alex Caruso 22 9 3 0
Kenrich Williams 10 8 3 0
Isaiah Joe 13 7 8 1
Luguentz Dort S 28 5 1 0
Dillon Jones 1 3 0 1
Cason Wallace 33 3 3 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
6 Julius Randle MIN
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
78%
Jumper
7%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.3 6.0 6.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.4 7.5 5.8
3 Julius Randle MIN 24.0 5.8 5.7
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.6 5.3 5.7
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.2 5.9 1.6
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.2 9.7 1.3
7 Naz Reid MIN 10.7 3.7 1.7
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.6 8.2 2.5
9 Alex Caruso OKC 9.8 2.8 2.7
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.2 9.5 0.7
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.2 3.0 3.3
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.2 3.4 1.2
13 Mike Conley MIN 7.2 2.9 2.9
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.5 3.3 1.2
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.8 2.0
16 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.9 1.7 1.9
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.4 2.4 0.8
18 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.3 1.2 1.1
19 Isaiah Joe OKC 4.5 1.3 0.9
20 Dillon Jones OKC 4.0 2.5 0.9
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.4 1.5 0.7
22 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.2 1.5 0.8
23 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.2 1.4
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.3 0.6 0.4
25 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.3 1.1 0.6
26 Luka Garza MIN 2.2 0.6 0.3
27 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.3 0.7 0.3
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.3 0.6 0.2
29 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.