NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
108–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY24302331108
IND25333433125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 37 24 5 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 22 14 2
Jalen Brunson S 34 19 2 7
Mikal Bridges S 32 15 1 4
Landry Shamet 16 12 0 2
Mitchell Robinson S 30 8 9 0
Josh Hart 22 4 6 1
Miles McBride 11 2 3 1
Delon Wright 12 2 1 0
Pacome Dadiet 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 31 5 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 21 6 13
Obi Toppin 25 18 6 0
Andrew Nembhard S 37 14 3 8
Thomas Bryant 13 11 3 0
Myles Turner S 21 11 2 0
Aaron Nesmith S 20 10 3 1
Bennedict Mathurin 9 4 1 0
T.J. McConnell 14 3 4 2
Jarace Walker 7 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Myles Turner IND
10%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
24%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.8 3.5 6.3
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.4 11.1 1.8
3 Pascal Siakam IND 21.8 5.5 3.7
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.8 5.1 8.1
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.7 4.5 3.5
6 Myles Turner IND 15.4 5.6 1.7
7 OG Anunoby NY 13.9 4.6 1.7
8 Josh Hart NY 13.4 8.4 3.9
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.6 3.2 4.8
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.6 5.1 1.4
11 Bennedict Mathurin IND 9.0 2.4 1.1
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 2.7 3.7
13 Obi Toppin IND 7.8 3.4 1.6
14 Miles McBride NY 6.8 1.5 1.1
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.0 7.1 0.8
16 Delon Wright NY 5.6 1.9 1.9
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.2 4.6 0.7
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.9 3.3 0.5
19 Ben Sheppard IND 4.7 1.4 0.7
20 Jarace Walker IND 3.7 1.9 0.8
21 Johnny Furphy IND 3.6 2.1 0.9
22 Thomas Bryant IND 3.3 1.9 0.6
23 Tyler Kolek NY 3.2 1.1 3.7
24 Tony Bradley IND 3.2 3.4 0.6
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 2.6 0.7
26 Landry Shamet NY 2.7 0.9 0.7
27 P.J. Tucker NY 2.7 1.3 0.4
28 Cameron Payne NY 1.4 0.6 0.5
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.3 0.6 0.2
30 James Johnson IND 1.0 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.