NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
94–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2322282194
NY27293421111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 25 23 9 0
Pascal Siakam S 34 15 6 5
Obi Toppin 18 11 4 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 8 2 6
Ben Sheppard 22 8 3 1
T.J. McConnell 18 7 5 5
Jarace Walker 13 6 1 0
Andrew Nembhard S 27 6 2 1
Myles Turner S 24 5 2 2
Aaron Nesmith S 16 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 32 5 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 24 13 3
Mikal Bridges S 34 12 3 5
Josh Hart 34 12 10 4
OG Anunoby S 34 11 4 0
Mitchell Robinson S 20 6 6 0
Landry Shamet 14 5 1 0
Miles McBride 18 5 1 2
Ariel Hukporti 1 2 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
13%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
10%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
30%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.4 3.5 6.6
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.9 10.9 1.8
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.6 5.4 7.9
4 Pascal Siakam IND 21.1 5.6 3.3
5 Mikal Bridges NY 15.7 4.7 3.7
6 Myles Turner IND 15.6 6.1 1.5
7 OG Anunoby NY 15.5 4.7 2.0
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.4 5.9 1.5
9 Josh Hart NY 13.7 8.5 3.8
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.9 3.6 5.0
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.5 3.2
12 Bennedict Mathurin IND 7.6 1.9 1.0
13 Miles McBride NY 7.2 1.7 1.2
14 Obi Toppin IND 6.6 3.2 1.6
15 Delon Wright NY 6.6 2.1 2.2
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.8 7.2 0.8
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.3 3.7 0.6
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.1 4.6 0.7
19 Landry Shamet NY 3.9 1.1 0.7
20 Ben Sheppard IND 3.7 1.5 0.5
21 Tyler Kolek NY 3.2 1.2 3.8
22 Tony Bradley IND 3.1 3.2 0.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.0 1.7 0.8
24 P.J. Tucker NY 2.6 1.4 0.4
25 Thomas Bryant IND 2.3 1.6 0.3
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.6 0.6
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 1.9 0.4
28 Cameron Payne NY 1.5 0.7 0.5
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.2 0.6 0.3
30 James Johnson IND 1.0 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.