NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
121–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY35292730121
IND43263328130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 31 2 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 24 12 3
OG Anunoby S 40 22 4 1
Mikal Bridges S 34 17 3 2
Josh Hart 36 12 11 1
Mitchell Robinson S 19 6 7 1
Landry Shamet 11 3 2 3
Delon Wright 9 3 0 1
Miles McBride 15 3 2 0
Precious Achiuwa 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 32 12 15
Pascal Siakam S 35 30 5 2
Bennedict Mathurin 12 20 2 2
Aaron Nesmith S 32 16 3 1
Myles Turner S 33 13 3 1
T.J. McConnell 19 6 0 3
Obi Toppin 18 5 2 2
Tony Bradley 10 3 1 0
Andrew Nembhard S 29 3 2 3
Ben Sheppard 14 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes 15-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
10 OG Anunoby NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
14%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.9 3.5 6.5
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.0 11.1 1.6
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.7 4.9 8.3
4 Pascal Siakam IND 18.9 5.3 3.5
5 Myles Turner IND 17.1 6.3 1.7
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.5 4.6 2.0
7 Mikal Bridges NY 15.0 4.6 3.5
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 15.0 3.8 5.0
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.4 6.1 1.4
10 Josh Hart NY 13.2 8.2 3.9
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.0 2.8 3.6
12 Obi Toppin IND 7.7 3.1 1.6
13 Bennedict Mathurin IND 7.5 2.0 0.9
14 Miles McBride NY 7.1 1.6 1.1
15 Delon Wright NY 6.2 2.0 2.3
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.7 6.6 0.7
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.2 4.6 0.7
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.5 3.1 0.4
19 Landry Shamet NY 4.4 1.1 0.5
20 Ben Sheppard IND 3.9 1.4 0.6
21 Tony Bradley IND 3.1 3.2 0.6
22 Tyler Kolek NY 3.0 1.1 3.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.0 1.7 0.8
24 P.J. Tucker NY 2.6 1.3 0.3
25 Thomas Bryant IND 2.4 1.7 0.4
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.6 0.6
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 1.8 0.3
28 Cameron Payne NY 1.5 0.7 0.5
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.2 0.6 0.2
30 James Johnson IND 1.0 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.