NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
106–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY26192536106
IND30282220100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 24 15 1
Jalen Brunson S 31 23 2 1
OG Anunoby S 37 16 2 2
Mikal Bridges S 37 15 2 1
Miles McBride 15 9 0 0
Josh Hart 34 8 10 4
Mitchell Robinson S 29 6 6 1
Landry Shamet 11 3 0 2
Delon Wright 13 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 20 4 7
Myles Turner S 33 19 4 3
Pascal Siakam S 35 17 4 2
T.J. McConnell 15 12 3 3
Andrew Nembhard S 38 9 4 3
Obi Toppin 14 8 4 0
Aaron Nesmith S 26 8 7 0
Ben Sheppard 17 3 3 0
Bennedict Mathurin 8 2 2 2
Tony Bradley 15 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 OG Anunoby NY
8%
10 Josh Hart NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.3 3.5 7.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 20.8 5.5 3.5
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.5 11.3 1.6
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.8 5.4 8.2
5 Myles Turner IND 15.7 6.2 1.6
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.6 5.0 1.8
7 Mikal Bridges NY 15.3 4.9 3.5
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.5 3.6 5.5
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.5 6.1 1.6
10 Josh Hart NY 14.3 8.4 4.2
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.5 2.9 3.7
12 Bennedict Mathurin IND 7.9 2.0 0.9
13 Obi Toppin IND 7.7 3.2 1.6
14 Miles McBride NY 7.3 1.7 1.2
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.9 7.4 0.7
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.2 4.7 0.7
17 Delon Wright NY 4.9 1.4 1.9
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.5 3.4 0.4
19 Ben Sheppard IND 3.8 1.4 0.6
20 Tony Bradley IND 3.2 3.2 0.5
21 Thomas Bryant IND 3.2 2.1 0.6
22 Landry Shamet NY 3.1 0.7 0.3
23 Tyler Kolek NY 3.1 1.2 3.7
24 Jarace Walker IND 3.0 1.7 0.8
25 P.J. Tucker NY 2.6 1.4 0.3
26 Cameron Payne NY 2.3 1.1 0.7
27 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.6 0.6
28 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 1.9 0.3
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.2 0.6 0.2
30 James Johnson IND 1.0 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.