NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
114–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND24253233114
NY26262928109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 39 5 3
Myles Turner S 33 16 3 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 14 8 11
Andrew Nembhard S 37 12 3 2
Aaron Nesmith S 33 12 7 1
T.J. McConnell 14 10 2 4
Ben Sheppard 13 6 0 1
Obi Toppin 19 4 2 2
Tony Bradley 8 1 2 0
Thomas Bryant 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 36 3 11
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 20 7 0
Mikal Bridges S 45 20 7 2
OG Anunoby S 36 16 5 1
Mitchell Robinson 29 6 9 0
Josh Hart S 29 6 6 1
Miles McBride 25 5 1 2
Cameron Payne 9 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes 1-foot dunk (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Josh Hart NY
11%
3 Myles Turner IND
10%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
7 OG Anunoby NY
10%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
20%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.9 3.9 7.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.1 11.2 1.7
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.8 4.8 8.3
4 Pascal Siakam IND 18.9 5.8 3.5
5 Myles Turner IND 15.5 6.2 1.5
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.5 5.0 1.8
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.4 5.7 1.7
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 15.2 3.6 5.6
9 Mikal Bridges NY 15.0 5.1 3.5
10 Josh Hart NY 14.8 8.8 4.7
11 Bennedict Mathurin IND 8.6 2.4 1.0
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.3 3.2 3.6
13 Obi Toppin IND 7.7 3.2 1.6
14 Miles McBride NY 7.0 1.8 1.2
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.5 6.8 0.8
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.1 4.8 0.7
17 Delon Wright NY 5.1 1.5 2.0
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.8 3.7 0.5
19 Ben Sheppard IND 3.8 1.5 0.6
20 Thomas Bryant IND 3.5 2.1 0.5
21 Landry Shamet NY 3.3 0.8 0.4
22 Tyler Kolek NY 3.3 1.4 3.8
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.0 1.7 0.8
24 P.J. Tucker NY 2.8 1.6 0.4
25 Cameron Payne NY 2.4 1.3 0.8
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.6 0.6
27 Tony Bradley IND 2.1 2.5 0.3
28 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.0 2.1 0.4
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.3 0.7 0.3
30 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.