NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
138–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
IND3428253813138
NY3633213510135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 42 31 4 11
Aaron Nesmith S 39 30 2 0
Pascal Siakam S 43 17 5 6
Andrew Nembhard S 35 15 4 4
Myles Turner S 31 14 5 2
T.J. McConnell 14 10 4 2
Bennedict Mathurin 21 9 3 0
Obi Toppin 20 8 10 0
Thomas Bryant 13 4 2 0
Ben Sheppard 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 43 1 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 35 12 2
OG Anunoby S 42 16 3 2
Mikal Bridges S 46 16 6 5
Miles McBride 25 9 2 1
Josh Hart S 44 8 13 7
Cameron Payne 10 6 1 1
Mitchell Robinson 21 2 8 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
6 Myles Turner IND
10%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
8 Josh Hart NY
9%
9 OG Anunoby NY
8%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
12%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.1 4.1 7.1
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.9 11.0 1.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.4 5.3 8.9
4 Pascal Siakam IND 19.0 5.8 3.0
5 OG Anunoby NY 15.4 4.7 1.7
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 15.2 3.5 5.3
7 Myles Turner IND 15.1 6.0 1.3
8 Mikal Bridges NY 14.7 4.9 3.2
9 Josh Hart NY 14.5 8.7 4.8
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.8 5.8 1.5
11 Bennedict Mathurin IND 9.5 2.7 1.0
12 T.J. McConnell IND 7.4 2.6 3.6
13 Obi Toppin IND 6.4 2.1 1.3
14 Miles McBride NY 5.7 1.2 0.8
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.3 3.7 0.5
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.2 4.9 0.7
17 Delon Wright NY 5.1 1.5 1.9
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.5 6.3 0.5
19 Landry Shamet NY 3.7 0.8 0.4
20 Tyler Kolek NY 3.6 1.4 4.0
21 P.J. Tucker NY 3.1 1.6 0.4
22 Ben Sheppard IND 3.0 1.1 0.4
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.0 1.8 0.8
24 Thomas Bryant IND 2.7 1.7 0.3
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.6 0.6
26 Tony Bradley IND 2.1 2.5 0.3
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.0 2.0 0.4
28 Cameron Payne NY 1.6 0.8 0.4
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.3 0.7 0.3
30 James Johnson IND 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.