NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
93–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN2620262193
OKC21393728125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 20 9 7
Christian Braun S 33 19 4 3
Jamal Murray S 35 13 1 2
Aaron Gordon S 25 8 11 0
Jalen Pickett 10 6 2 2
Russell Westbrook 22 6 5 2
Julian Strawther 18 6 3 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 23 6 3 1
Hunter Tyson 10 5 3 1
Peyton Watson 20 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 35 3 4
Jalen Williams S 33 24 5 7
Chet Holmgren S 28 13 11 1
Alex Caruso 26 11 0 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 17 10 7 1
Aaron Wiggins 19 8 4 3
Cason Wallace 29 7 3 5
Luguentz Dort S 17 6 5 2
Ajay Mitchell 8 5 1 0
Isaiah Joe 4 5 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Christian Braun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Christian Braun makes 12-foot two point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Christian Braun DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
82%
Jumper
9%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.6 6.0 6.7
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.1 12.9 6.6
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.5 5.4 5.5
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.1 5.4 5.9
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.4 7.0 3.4
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.9 9.7 1.5
7 Christian Braun DEN 13.0 6.6 2.6
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.1 3.4 2.8
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.8 8.8 2.9
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 9.5 4.6 1.0
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.9 3.4 1.2
12 Alex Caruso OKC 8.8 3.0 3.0
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.2 2.5 1.0
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.5 1.4 1.4
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.8 1.8
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.4 1.6 1.0
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 2.9 1.2
18 Peyton Watson DEN 5.0 3.1 0.6
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.7 3.0 1.5
20 Dillon Jones OKC 4.3 2.5 1.1
21 Julian Strawther DEN 4.0 1.6 0.6
22 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.9 1.9 1.0
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.8 1.6 0.7
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 1.0 0.4
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 1.0 0.4
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.0 0.8 0.7
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 1.5 1.7 0.2
28 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.4 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.