NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
107–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC28332125107
DEN31273229119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 32 3 6
Chet Holmgren S 30 19 11 1
Alex Caruso 27 10 0 4
Cason Wallace 27 10 4 0
Luguentz Dort S 21 10 2 1
Jaylin Williams 14 8 5 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 8 6 0
Jalen Williams S 38 6 7 10
Isaiah Joe 8 2 1 0
Aaron Wiggins 12 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 41 29 14 8
Jamal Murray S 42 25 8 7
Christian Braun S 39 23 11 5
Julian Strawther 20 15 2 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 10 4 0
Russell Westbrook 17 8 3 0
Aaron Gordon S 38 5 7 7
Peyton Watson 14 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes 10-foot two point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Christian Braun DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.7 6.3 6.6
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.3 13.4 7.8
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.4 5.5 5.4
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.3 4.6 5.4
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.5 6.9 3.1
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 9.4 1.5
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.6 3.4 3.0
8 Christian Braun DEN 12.2 6.5 2.1
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.5 10.0 3.3
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 9.6 4.7 1.1
11 Alex Caruso OKC 9.4 3.2 2.7
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.3 3.4 1.2
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.7 3.1 1.3
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.5 1.3 1.4
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.3 2.0 1.2
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.7 1.8
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 3.2 1.2
18 Peyton Watson DEN 5.2 3.1 0.6
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.8 3.0 1.6
20 Julian Strawther DEN 3.8 1.8 0.6
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.6 1.9 0.9
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.4 2.4 0.9
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.0 1.1 0.5
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.5 1.1 0.4
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.2 0.9 0.7
26 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.7 1.6 0.7
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 1.7 1.8 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.