NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
105–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28283019105
OKC27272434112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 44 44 15 5
Jamal Murray S 42 28 4 3
Aaron Gordon S 37 13 5 3
Christian Braun S 43 8 7 3
Russell Westbrook 20 4 4 3
Julian Strawther 10 3 2 1
Peyton Watson 15 3 8 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 31 6 7
Jalen Williams S 38 18 9 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 15 7 2
Chet Holmgren S 34 14 8 1
Alex Caruso 24 13 4 2
Luguentz Dort S 28 12 3 1
Cason Wallace 18 4 2 2
Aaron Wiggins 11 3 1 2
Jaylin Williams 10 2 2 2
Isaiah Joe 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
9 Christian Braun DEN
8%
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
26%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.3 6.0 7.0
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.0 12.9 7.8
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.9 5.0 5.5
4 Jamal Murray DEN 21.9 4.5 5.3
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.6 7.1 2.9
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.2 8.7 1.7
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.6 3.9 3.1
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.7 3.7 1.7
9 Christian Braun DEN 11.6 6.4 2.1
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.0 9.7 3.1
11 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 10.3 5.8 1.0
12 Alex Caruso OKC 9.3 3.2 3.1
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.2 3.4 1.3
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.3 1.8
15 Ajay Mitchell OKC 7.0 1.4 1.5
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.4 2.6 1.8
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.9 3.4 1.3
18 Peyton Watson DEN 5.0 2.7 0.5
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.8 3.0 1.5
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.2 2.3 1.4
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.6 2.5 1.0
22 Julian Strawther DEN 3.4 1.6 0.5
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.2 1.2 0.5
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 1.4 0.6
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.4 0.9 0.7
26 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.9 1.7 0.7
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 1.9 1.9 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.