NBA games

GS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
110–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS23242538110
MIN30323128121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIN
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 39 28 6 4
Jonathan Kuminga 32 26 3 0
Jimmy Butler III S 42 17 6 6
Moses Moody 12 12 1 2
Draymond Green S 36 10 6 6
Buddy Hield S 30 8 4 1
Quinten Post 10 3 3 0
Pat Spencer 6 2 1 1
Gui Santos 16 2 5 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 7 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 43 29 8 5
Anthony Edwards S 41 22 7 12
Rudy Gobert S 28 17 8 0
Mike Conley S 27 16 6 8
Jaden McDaniels S 41 14 4 2
Donte DiVincenzo 26 13 2 6
Naz Reid 21 8 4 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 14 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes 2-foot two point shot (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
8%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
10 Buddy Hield GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
8%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.0 7.2 5.6
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.7 5.7 5.9
3 Stephen Curry GS 22.7 5.2 5.1
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.6 6.3 5.0
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.4 6.1 1.6
6 Buddy Hield GS 12.3 3.8 2.0
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.0 3.2 1.7
8 Naz Reid MIN 11.4 4.0 2.0
9 Draymond Green GS 10.6 5.4 3.6
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.2 4.1 2.7
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.9 3.4 3.3
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.6 10.0 0.8
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.7 2.3 2.6
14 Mike Conley MIN 6.9 2.8 2.8
15 Moses Moody GS 5.9 2.3 1.0
16 Gary Payton II GS 5.7 2.2 1.3
17 Pat Spencer GS 4.5 1.5 1.0
18 Quinten Post GS 4.3 2.3 1.0
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.1 2.8 0.6
20 Kevin Knox II GS 3.8 1.4 0.6
21 Gui Santos GS 3.4 1.3 1.0
22 Kevon Looney GS 3.0 3.5 0.4
23 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.1 1.4
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.6 0.7 0.4
25 Luka Garza MIN 2.5 0.7 0.4
26 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.3 0.9 0.6
27 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.7 0.8 0.4
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.5 0.7 0.3
29 Braxton Key GS 1.4 1.3 0.2
30 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.