NBA games

MIN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
117–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN27313920117
GS28321733110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home GS
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 41 31 5 3
Anthony Edwards S 33 30 4 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17 13 2 2
Mike Conley S 29 11 3 5
Jaden McDaniels S 40 10 13 2
Donte DiVincenzo 26 9 3 3
Rudy Gobert S 30 8 6 1
Naz Reid 24 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 30 23 0 1
Jimmy Butler III S 34 14 6 3
Draymond Green S 34 14 7 2
Buddy Hield S 35 13 4 1
Brandin Podziemski S 33 11 3 1
Kevon Looney 14 8 8 0
Gui Santos 5 7 1 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 19 5 3 1
Quinten Post 5 5 2 1
Moses Moody 7 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
2 Julius Randle MIN
11%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III GS
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
10 Buddy Hield GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.9 7.3 5.2
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.6 5.3 5.4
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.8 6.3 5.3
4 Julius Randle MIN 22.5 5.7 5.7
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.1 5.2 1.5
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.2 10.5 0.8
7 Naz Reid MIN 11.1 4.3 1.8
8 Buddy Hield GS 11.0 3.4 1.9
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.6 3.4 1.6
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.4 4.5 3.0
11 Draymond Green GS 10.1 5.4 3.7
12 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.6 3.7 3.2
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.4 2.3 2.6
14 Moses Moody GS 6.5 2.3 1.1
15 Mike Conley MIN 6.1 2.7 2.7
16 Gary Payton II GS 5.8 2.1 1.4
17 Quinten Post GS 4.2 2.2 1.0
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.1 2.6 0.6
19 Pat Spencer GS 3.6 1.0 1.1
20 Kevin Knox II GS 2.8 1.0 0.4
21 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.1 1.3
22 Kevon Looney GS 2.6 2.9 0.5
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.5 0.8 0.4
24 Luka Garza MIN 2.5 0.8 0.3
25 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.2 1.0 0.6
26 Gui Santos GS 2.2 0.8 0.7
27 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.7 0.9 0.3
28 Braxton Key GS 1.6 1.4 0.3
29 Leonard Miller MIN 1.5 0.7 0.2
30 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.