NBA games

MIN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
102–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN21192933102
GS2121312497

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home GS
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 44 36 4 4
Julius Randle S 40 24 10 12
Jaden McDaniels S 42 15 6 1
Rudy Gobert S 27 9 13 0
Naz Reid 25 9 3 2
Mike Conley S 28 7 4 5
Donte DiVincenzo 16 2 2 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 18 0 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 43 33 7 7
Jonathan Kuminga 36 30 6 3
Buddy Hield S 32 14 4 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 11 7 2 0
Brandin Podziemski S 39 5 8 2
Kevon Looney 18 4 6 0
Gary Payton II 26 2 1 0
Draymond Green S 29 2 2 4
Quinten Post 3 0 0 0
Moses Moody 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
6 Jimmy Butler III GS
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
9 Quinten Post GS
7%
10 Buddy Hield GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
29%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.7 7.4 5.2
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.0 5.8 5.2
3 Stephen Curry GS 22.7 5.4 5.5
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.2 5.8 5.6
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.2 5.1 1.5
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.6 10.5 0.9
7 Naz Reid MIN 11.5 4.4 1.8
8 Draymond Green GS 10.7 5.6 4.3
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.2 4.2 3.2
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.0 3.5 3.5
11 Buddy Hield GS 9.9 3.0 1.6
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.5 3.0 1.6
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.2 2.5 2.4
14 Moses Moody GS 7.7 2.8 1.1
15 Mike Conley MIN 6.1 2.8 2.9
16 Gary Payton II GS 5.8 2.3 1.6
17 Quinten Post GS 4.9 2.6 1.2
18 Pat Spencer GS 4.5 1.4 1.3
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.6 2.3 0.6
20 Kevin Knox II GS 3.6 1.4 0.6
21 Josh Minott MIN 3.4 1.2 0.6
22 Luka Garza MIN 3.3 1.2 0.5
23 Gui Santos GS 3.0 1.2 0.9
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.1 1.3
25 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.4 1.3 0.5
26 Kevon Looney GS 2.4 2.4 0.6
27 Braxton Key GS 2.4 1.8 0.5
28 Leonard Miller MIN 2.3 1.1 0.4
29 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.1 1.2 0.6
30 Rob Dillingham MIN 1.0 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.