NBA games

GS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
93–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS1524262893
MIN29272932117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIN
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 26 18 5 1
Jimmy Butler III S 34 17 7 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis 19 15 6 1
Buddy Hield S 29 15 3 1
Brandin Podziemski S 33 11 6 6
Draymond Green S 29 9 4 5
Moses Moody 16 3 2 1
Kevin Knox II 9 3 2 0
Braxton Key 4 2 2 1
Pat Spencer 14 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 33 24 7 11
Anthony Edwards S 34 20 9 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 26 20 2 3
Jaden McDaniels S 33 16 2 0
Naz Reid 30 11 3 5
Donte DiVincenzo 26 9 3 5
Mike Conley S 17 6 2 2
Rudy Gobert S 27 5 9 0
Leonard Miller 3 2 1 0
Josh Minott 3 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Jimmy Butler III GS
9%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
7 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
8 Buddy Hield GS
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
36%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.2 7.3 5.3
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.7 5.4 5.5
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.5 5.7 5.6
4 Julius Randle MIN 21.8 5.8 5.0
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.2 5.3 1.7
6 Naz Reid MIN 12.3 4.6 1.7
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.8 10.5 1.1
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.0 3.6 3.5
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.5 4.5 3.0
10 Draymond Green GS 10.4 5.6 4.0
11 Buddy Hield GS 9.5 3.0 1.4
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.4 3.4 1.6
13 Moses Moody GS 7.8 2.8 1.2
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.0 2.6 2.3
15 Mike Conley MIN 6.5 3.0 2.9
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.0 2.6 1.7
17 Quinten Post GS 5.1 2.9 1.1
18 Pat Spencer GS 4.5 1.4 1.2
19 Gui Santos GS 3.4 1.7 0.8
20 Kevon Looney GS 2.8 2.8 0.7
21 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.1 1.4
22 Kevin Knox II GS 2.5 0.9 0.4
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.4 1.8 0.4
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.3 1.3 0.6
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.1 0.7 0.4
26 Luka Garza MIN 2.1 0.6 0.3
27 Braxton Key GS 1.6 1.2 0.2
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.4 0.7 0.2
29 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.