NBA games

GS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
99–88
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS1826361999
MIN2011292888

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIN
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield S 40 24 8 3
Jimmy Butler III S 41 20 11 8
Draymond Green S 35 18 8 6
Stephen Curry S 13 13 1 1
Gary Payton II 26 8 5 4
Jonathan Kuminga 13 7 1 1
Pat Spencer 11 4 2 0
Brandin Podziemski S 29 3 8 3
Kevon Looney 14 2 6 0
Gui Santos 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 42 23 14 2
Naz Reid 34 19 5 1
Julius Randle S 31 18 3 6
Jaden McDaniels S 38 12 4 1
Rudy Gobert S 26 9 11 0
Donte DiVincenzo 33 7 3 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 14 0 0 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 2 0 0 0
Mike Conley S 22 0 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
2 Julius Randle MIN
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
4 Stephen Curry GS
8%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Joe Ingles MIN
7%
9 Buddy Hield GS
7%
10 Gary Payton II GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
20%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.6 6.3 5.2
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.5 5.2 5.7
3 Stephen Curry GS 22.0 5.5 5.8
4 Julius Randle MIN 21.6 6.0 4.8
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.1 11.0 1.1
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.9 5.2 1.6
7 Naz Reid MIN 11.3 4.7 1.5
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.2 4.2 3.0
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.2 3.4 2.9
10 Draymond Green GS 9.1 5.5 3.8
11 Moses Moody GS 8.9 2.9 1.2
12 Buddy Hield GS 8.3 2.6 1.2
13 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.2 3.3 1.4
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.9 2.4 2.4
15 Mike Conley MIN 6.1 2.9 2.7
16 Quinten Post GS 5.6 2.8 1.2
17 Gary Payton II GS 5.6 2.3 1.3
18 Pat Spencer GS 3.5 0.9 1.0
19 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.2 1.4
20 Kevon Looney GS 2.6 2.8 0.7
21 Kevin Knox II GS 2.5 0.9 0.4
22 Gui Santos GS 2.4 1.2 0.6
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.4 1.8 0.4
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.2 0.7 0.4
25 Luka Garza MIN 2.2 0.6 0.3
26 Braxton Key GS 1.6 1.3 0.3
27 Leonard Miller MIN 1.5 0.7 0.2
28 Jaylen Clark MIN 1.4 0.8 0.3
29 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.2 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.