NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
92–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC1725212992
DEN828331887

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 25 6 6
Aaron Wiggins 16 11 6 0
Cason Wallace 23 11 5 2
Alex Caruso 28 10 4 2
Jalen Williams S 33 10 3 5
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 8 14 3
Chet Holmgren S 29 8 13 0
Luguentz Dort S 19 6 2 0
Jaylin Williams 13 2 1 1
Isaiah Joe 7 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 43 27 13 3
Christian Braun S 44 17 4 2
Jamal Murray S 41 17 4 5
Aaron Gordon S 38 15 16 6
Russell Westbrook 27 6 3 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 3 9 0
Peyton Watson 9 2 0 0
Julian Strawther 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:36 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 2-foot dunk (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Christian Braun DEN
9%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
32%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.2 5.8 7.0
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.8 12.7 8.7
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.5 5.0 5.3
4 Jamal Murray DEN 21.3 4.8 6.0
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.7 6.5 2.5
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.6 8.0 1.7
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.5 3.7 3.7
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.3 3.8 1.8
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.5 8.8 3.2
10 Christian Braun DEN 11.4 6.2 1.9
11 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 10.4 5.3 1.1
12 Alex Caruso OKC 9.1 3.2 3.0
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.9 3.6 1.4
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.8 2.6 2.0
15 Ajay Mitchell OKC 7.4 1.6 1.6
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.4 1.8
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.3 3.5 1.4
18 Peyton Watson DEN 5.5 2.8 0.6
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.9 3.0 1.6
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.5 2.6 1.6
21 Dillon Jones OKC 4.0 2.7 1.2
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.6 1.4 0.7
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.5 1.6 0.7
24 Julian Strawther DEN 3.1 1.3 0.5
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.9 1.2 0.9
26 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.5 1.9 1.0
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.4 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.