NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
104–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
OKC282827192104
DEN2229292211113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 43 32 3 5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 45 18 13 7
Chet Holmgren S 40 18 16 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 10 10 4
Alex Caruso 23 7 2 2
Aaron Wiggins 13 7 2 2
Jaylin Williams 14 5 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 34 3 4 3
Cason Wallace 20 2 3 1
Isaiah Joe 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 48 27 4 8
Aaron Gordon S 46 22 8 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 42 21 8 1
Nikola Jokic S 44 20 16 6
Russell Westbrook 22 8 1 4
Christian Braun S 43 8 7 1
Peyton Watson 17 7 5 0
Zeke Nnaji 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes layup (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
10 Christian Braun DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
28%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.2 5.1 6.9
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.9 11.9 8.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.6 5.1 5.2
4 Jamal Murray DEN 21.8 5.2 5.3
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.1 6.4 2.2
6 Russell Westbrook DEN 16.6 3.8 3.7
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 6.8 1.8
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.6 3.8 1.8
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.2 6.2 2.4
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.8 8.7 3.4
11 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 10.1 5.3 1.1
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 3.6 1.4
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.2 2.6 2.1
14 Alex Caruso OKC 8.7 3.4 2.8
15 Ajay Mitchell OKC 7.8 1.7 1.7
16 Cason Wallace OKC 7.1 2.6 2.1
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.8 3.6 1.5
18 Peyton Watson DEN 5.4 2.6 0.6
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.9 3.0 1.6
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.6 2.8 1.8
21 Dillon Jones OKC 4.6 2.8 1.3
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.1 1.6 0.8
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 2.0 0.8
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.7 1.6 0.7
25 Julian Strawther DEN 3.5 1.5 0.6
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.4 1.4 1.0
27 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.0 2.1 1.0
28 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.8 2.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.