NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
106–149
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN21352030106
OKC45423725149

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook 22 19 1 5
Nikola Jokic S 32 17 8 6
Jamal Murray S 31 14 4 1
Aaron Gordon S 27 10 5 1
Julian Strawther 14 9 0 1
Peyton Watson 15 9 2 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 25 8 5 0
Hunter Tyson 12 8 4 1
Zeke Nnaji 13 4 3 2
Christian Braun S 26 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 34 4 8
Jalen Williams S 26 17 4 7
Chet Holmgren S 26 15 11 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 14 8 5
Isaiah Joe 17 14 1 2
Luguentz Dort S 27 12 1 0
Ajay Mitchell 13 10 0 0
Aaron Wiggins 15 10 5 0
Cason Wallace 12 8 2 2
Dillon Jones 8 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
17%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
8 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
9 Christian Braun DEN
7%
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.2 5.0 7.1
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.9 12.4 8.9
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.7 5.4 5.0
4 Jamal Murray DEN 21.7 5.4 5.6
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.8 6.4 2.3
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.2 6.9 2.1
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.2 4.0 3.6
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.4 3.7 2.0
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.2 6.3 2.7
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.1 8.4 3.1
11 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 10.4 5.8 1.1
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.2 3.7 1.4
13 Alex Caruso OKC 9.2 3.7 3.2
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.6 2.5 2.1
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.3 2.8 2.6
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.4 3.4 1.2
17 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.2 1.3 1.5
18 Peyton Watson DEN 5.3 3.0 0.7
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.3 1.9 1.1
20 Dario Saric DEN 4.8 3.0 1.5
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.6 2.7 1.6
22 Julian Strawther DEN 3.4 1.7 0.5
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.1 2.4 0.9
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.0 0.4
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.8 0.9 0.8
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.7 1.3 0.4
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 1.8 2.3 0.3
28 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.7 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.