NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
121–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN26243536121
OKC27333029119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 42 42 22 6
Aaron Gordon S 39 22 14 1
Jamal Murray S 44 21 6 6
Russell Westbrook 30 18 2 2
Christian Braun S 40 11 13 3
Peyton Watson 15 3 1 0
Julian Strawther 6 2 1 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 24 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 40 33 10 8
Alex Caruso 26 20 1 6
Jalen Williams S 38 16 7 4
Luguentz Dort S 30 14 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 12 9 1
Chet Holmgren S 28 12 6 2
Aaron Wiggins 14 5 4 0
Jaylin Williams 3 4 1 0
Cason Wallace 21 3 2 3
Isaiah Joe 13 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 1-foot driving floating jump shot (Christian Braun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Christian Braun DEN
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
34%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.5 4.5 6.7
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.4 13.2 9.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.7 4.8 4.5
4 Jamal Murray DEN 21.7 5.4 5.6
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 20.5 5.7 2.6
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.9 6.8 1.9
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.7 4.1 3.6
8 Christian Braun DEN 13.1 5.7 2.6
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 11.4 6.0 1.2
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.4 3.4 1.8
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 8.9 7.7 2.7
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.2 3.5 1.1
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.4 2.2 1.9
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.4 2.4 2.3
15 Alex Caruso OKC 6.8 3.1 2.4
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.4 3.5 1.3
17 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.2 1.2 1.5
18 Peyton Watson DEN 5.4 3.1 0.7
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.3 1.9 1.1
20 Dario Saric DEN 4.7 3.0 1.5
21 Julian Strawther DEN 4.0 1.6 0.6
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.3 1.0
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.6 1.5 0.6
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.5 1.8 0.7
25 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.4 2.7 1.4
26 Dillon Jones OKC 3.0 2.4 0.9
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 2.7 0.5
28 Vlatko Cancar DEN 1.9 1.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.