NBA games

BOS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
81–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2017202481
NY26382827119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NY
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 32 20 6 6
Payton Pritchard 28 11 2 4
Al Horford S 27 10 2 0
Derrick White S 30 8 1 2
Sam Hauser 15 6 3 0
Luke Kornet S 21 5 5 1
Baylor Scheierman 14 5 2 0
Kristaps Porzingis 11 4 5 0
Jrue Holiday S 30 4 4 3
Torrey Craig 9 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 37 23 9 2
Jalen Brunson S 35 23 6 6
Mikal Bridges S 30 22 4 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 21 12 1
Miles McBride 32 10 2 1
Josh Hart S 33 10 11 11
Precious Achiuwa 9 6 3 0
Tyler Kolek 2 3 1 0
Mitchell Robinson 14 1 4 0
Landry Shamet 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 3-foot two point shot (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
34%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 3.9 7.9
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.3 6.8 4.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.5 10.4 1.5
4 Derrick White BOS 19.4 5.2 3.5
5 Mikal Bridges NY 15.0 5.2 3.3
6 OG Anunoby NY 14.3 4.4 1.8
7 Josh Hart NY 13.9 7.9 4.6
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.3 3.8 3.8
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.0 2.5 1.5
10 Al Horford BOS 8.8 6.2 1.6
11 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 7.9 4.4 1.1
12 Miles McBride NY 5.9 1.4 1.0
13 Sam Hauser BOS 5.8 1.8 0.8
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.8 4.5 0.9
15 Delon Wright NY 5.5 1.5 2.0
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.4 6.2 0.8
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.0 4.0 0.6
18 P.J. Tucker NY 4.9 2.5 0.7
19 Landry Shamet NY 4.7 1.1 0.6
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.6 2.2 0.9
21 Tyler Kolek NY 4.4 1.5 4.2
22 Neemias Queta BOS 4.2 2.9 0.9
23 JD Davison BOS 3.3 1.5 1.1
24 Torrey Craig BOS 2.8 3.1 0.8
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.5 1.1 0.5
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.2 0.6
27 Cameron Payne NY 2.3 1.0 0.6
28 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.2 1.0 0.5
29 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.1 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.