NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
102–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY32271726102
BOS30293236127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Hart S 36 24 7 2
Jalen Brunson S 33 22 1 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 19 8 0
Miles McBride 29 11 0 3
Mikal Bridges S 40 9 2 3
Mitchell Robinson 23 8 13 0
OG Anunoby S 36 6 8 2
Pacome Dadiet 3 2 0 0
Landry Shamet 3 1 0 1
Precious Achiuwa 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 40 34 3 2
Jaylen Brown S 37 26 8 12
Payton Pritchard 39 17 5 3
Jrue Holiday S 33 14 7 3
Al Horford S 24 12 5 2
Luke Kornet 26 10 9 1
Sam Hauser 15 6 1 2
Neemias Queta 3 4 1 1
JD Davison 3 3 0 1
Kristaps Porzingis S 12 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
17%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Al Horford BOS
7%
10 P.J. Tucker NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
10%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.6 4.0 7.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.6 7.0 3.3
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.8 11.0 1.6
4 Derrick White BOS 17.5 5.3 3.9
5 Josh Hart NY 13.7 7.9 4.6
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.1 2.8 2.0
7 OG Anunoby NY 13.0 4.3 1.7
8 Mikal Bridges NY 12.3 5.3 2.9
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.8 3.8 3.8
10 Al Horford BOS 9.2 6.7 1.6
11 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 9.0 4.9 1.2
12 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.6 4.9 0.9
13 Delon Wright NY 5.5 1.6 2.0
14 Miles McBride NY 5.4 1.3 0.9
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 3.8 0.7
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.9 5.9 0.7
17 P.J. Tucker NY 4.8 2.5 0.7
18 Sam Hauser BOS 4.6 1.6 0.6
19 Tyler Kolek NY 4.3 1.5 4.1
20 Landry Shamet NY 4.1 0.9 0.3
21 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.0 2.1 0.9
22 Neemias Queta BOS 3.5 2.7 0.7
23 Cameron Payne NY 3.3 1.1 0.7
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.5 1.1 0.5
25 Torrey Craig BOS 2.5 2.6 0.7
26 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 2.2 0.5
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 1.0 0.4
28 JD Davison BOS 2.1 0.9 0.9
29 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.