NBA games

BOS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
113–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS39232328113
NY28233733121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NY
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 40 42 8 4
Derrick White S 44 23 3 2
Jaylen Brown S 33 20 7 2
Payton Pritchard 20 12 0 0
Kristaps Porzingis 24 7 4 0
Al Horford S 38 5 5 4
Jrue Holiday S 34 4 4 3
Luke Kornet 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 40 39 5 12
Mikal Bridges S 44 23 7 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 23 11 1
OG Anunoby S 40 20 3 2
Josh Hart S 30 6 9 5
Miles McBride 20 6 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 25 4 8 2
Cameron Payne 4 0 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 P.J. Tucker NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
31%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.7 3.8 6.9
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.1 10.1 5.9
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.1 6.3 3.2
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.0 10.8 2.0
5 Derrick White BOS 17.6 5.6 4.5
6 Mikal Bridges NY 15.9 4.8 3.4
7 OG Anunoby NY 15.2 4.4 1.8
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.9 3.1 2.0
9 Josh Hart NY 13.6 8.1 4.8
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.3 4.0 4.1
11 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 10.9 4.8 1.4
12 Al Horford BOS 9.4 7.2 1.6
13 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.8 4.9 1.0
14 Delon Wright NY 6.3 1.9 2.3
15 Miles McBride NY 6.0 1.6 1.4
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.4 5.8 0.8
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.3 4.1 0.8
18 Landry Shamet NY 5.1 1.2 0.6
19 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.8 2.3 1.1
20 Cameron Payne NY 4.3 1.2 1.2
21 Neemias Queta BOS 4.1 3.0 0.9
22 P.J. Tucker NY 3.7 2.0 0.5
23 Torrey Craig BOS 3.3 3.0 0.8
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 2.5 0.7
25 Tyler Kolek NY 3.0 1.0 3.8
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 1.1 0.5
27 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.5 0.6
28 JD Davison BOS 2.0 0.9 0.8
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.0 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.