NBA games

BOS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
115–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS36352519115
NY2026242393

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NY
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 35 23 4 2
Jayson Tatum S 40 22 9 7
Jaylen Brown S 36 19 6 5
Derrick White S 34 17 5 2
Al Horford S 35 15 9 1
Jrue Holiday S 25 8 2 4
Luke Kornet 10 6 2 0
Kristaps Porzingis 19 5 4 2
Jordan Walsh 2 0 0 0
Torrey Craig 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 40 27 4 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 21 15 0
Mikal Bridges S 38 12 3 2
Josh Hart S 34 10 6 3
Precious Achiuwa 6 6 1 0
Mitchell Robinson 19 6 8 1
Miles McBride 20 5 1 0
Cameron Payne 8 2 1 2
Ariel Hukporti 2 2 2 0
OG Anunoby S 31 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Derrick White makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
5 OG Anunoby NY
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
7%
8 Ariel Hukporti NY
7%
9 Josh Hart NY
6%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
34%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.2 3.8 6.6
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.7 9.9 6.0
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.7 6.3 3.2
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.9 10.9 2.2
5 Derrick White BOS 17.6 5.4 4.8
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.1 4.8 3.7
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.2 3.2 2.9
8 Josh Hart NY 13.6 8.3 5.0
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.5 4.4 4.2
10 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 11.9 4.7 1.5
11 OG Anunoby NY 11.9 5.0 1.7
12 Al Horford BOS 8.7 6.7 1.6
13 Miles McBride NY 6.3 1.7 1.6
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.1 4.9 0.8
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.8 4.1 0.8
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.4 6.0 0.8
17 Delon Wright NY 4.7 1.4 2.0
18 Cameron Payne NY 4.3 1.2 1.1
19 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.8 1.8 1.0
20 Landry Shamet NY 3.8 0.9 0.5
21 P.J. Tucker NY 3.8 2.1 0.5
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 2.5 0.7
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.9 1.1 3.8
24 Neemias Queta BOS 2.7 2.3 0.6
25 Torrey Craig BOS 1.9 2.1 0.6
26 JD Davison BOS 1.9 0.9 0.8
27 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.0 0.9 0.3
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.0 0.6 0.2
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.