NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
91–90
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY1328203091
BOS2426231790

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Hart S 43 23 6 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 21 17 1
Jalen Brunson S 38 17 3 7
Mikal Bridges S 43 14 7 5
Mitchell Robinson 22 6 8 0
Miles McBride 17 5 0 1
OG Anunoby S 38 5 5 1
Cameron Payne 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 41 20 6 1
Derrick White S 40 20 9 5
Jayson Tatum S 42 13 14 5
Jrue Holiday S 34 10 3 5
Payton Pritchard 22 9 3 1
Kristaps Porzingis 14 8 4 0
Luke Kornet 18 6 8 0
Al Horford S 29 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
7 OG Anunoby NY
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Ariel Hukporti NY
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.9 3.6 6.8
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.3 9.9 5.9
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.8 6.6 3.5
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.4 10.4 2.1
5 Derrick White BOS 18.2 5.6 5.1
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.1 4.8 3.6
7 OG Anunoby NY 14.5 4.8 2.0
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.2 3.3 3.1
9 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 13.4 4.9 1.9
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.6 4.2 4.3
11 Josh Hart NY 12.0 9.1 5.1
12 Al Horford BOS 10.1 6.9 1.8
13 Miles McBride NY 6.8 1.8 1.9
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.5 5.1 0.9
15 Sam Hauser BOS 6.2 2.2 0.9
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 3.9 1.0
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.6 5.5 0.7
18 Cameron Payne NY 4.6 1.3 1.1
19 Delon Wright NY 4.5 1.4 1.9
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.2 1.9 1.1
21 Landry Shamet NY 3.8 0.9 0.5
22 P.J. Tucker NY 3.6 2.1 0.4
23 Neemias Queta BOS 3.0 2.7 0.7
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 2.5 0.6
25 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 1.0 3.7
26 Torrey Craig BOS 2.2 2.5 0.6
27 JD Davison BOS 2.2 1.0 0.9
28 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.4 1.1 0.4
29 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.1 0.6 0.3
30 Pacome Dadiet NY 0.8 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.