NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
108–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
NY252030258108
BOS263523165105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 46 29 4 3
Jalen Brunson S 44 29 4 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 14 13 0
Josh Hart S 45 14 11 3
Miles McBride 19 11 2 1
Mikal Bridges S 51 8 6 7
Mitchell Robinson 21 3 7 0
Cameron Payne 3 0 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 44 23 16 6
Jaylen Brown S 45 23 7 5
Derrick White S 44 19 11 2
Jrue Holiday S 39 16 6 3
Payton Pritchard 24 13 3 1
Al Horford 34 7 7 0
Luke Kornet 17 4 5 0
Kristaps Porzingis S 13 0 4 1
Sam Hauser 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Josh Hart makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
3 OG Anunoby NY
8%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
7 Jaylen Brown BOS
7%
8 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
6%
10 Ariel Hukporti NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
19%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.7 3.4 6.9
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.0 9.2 5.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.3 10.4 2.3
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.9 5.9 3.3
5 OG Anunoby NY 17.2 4.7 1.9
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.7 4.6 3.6
7 Derrick White BOS 16.4 4.8 5.5
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.0 3.5 3.4
9 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 14.8 5.3 1.7
10 Josh Hart NY 12.8 8.8 5.6
11 Al Horford BOS 10.9 6.9 2.0
12 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.6 3.2 3.8
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.7 2.5 0.7
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.4 4.3 0.7
15 Miles McBride NY 6.4 1.9 1.9
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.6 4.1 0.9
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.1 6.0 0.6
18 Cameron Payne NY 4.6 1.1 1.3
19 Delon Wright NY 4.6 1.4 1.9
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.6 1.9 1.1
21 Landry Shamet NY 4.3 1.0 0.5
22 P.J. Tucker NY 3.7 2.0 0.5
23 Neemias Queta BOS 3.4 2.6 0.7
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.0 2.4 0.7
25 Tyler Kolek NY 2.9 1.0 3.7
26 JD Davison BOS 2.5 1.0 0.9
27 Torrey Craig BOS 2.4 2.5 0.6
28 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.6 1.0 0.4
29 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.1 0.6 0.3
30 Pacome Dadiet NY 0.9 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.