NBA games

IND @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
114–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND19333329114
CLE31252029105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CLE
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 31 6 8
Pascal Siakam S 40 21 8 5
Andrew Nembhard S 37 18 3 6
Aaron Nesmith S 37 13 13 2
Myles Turner S 33 10 7 0
Thomas Bryant 11 9 3 0
Obi Toppin 12 5 3 3
Bennedict Mathurin 11 4 0 0
Ben Sheppard 12 3 1 0
T.J. McConnell 10 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 38 35 9 1
Evan Mobley S 37 24 11 1
De'Andre Hunter 30 12 5 1
Darius Garland S 33 11 4 3
Jarrett Allen S 30 9 4 0
Ty Jerome 11 8 0 2
Dean Wade 19 4 6 0
Isaac Okoro 16 2 0 0
Max Strus S 26 0 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes driving layup (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Darius Garland CLE
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Max Strus CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
13%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.8 4.6 5.1
2 Darius Garland CLE 20.9 3.0 6.5
3 Pascal Siakam IND 18.3 6.0 3.0
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.9 5.7 8.9
5 Evan Mobley CLE 16.7 8.2 2.8
6 Myles Turner IND 15.2 5.6 1.6
7 Ty Jerome CLE 14.2 3.0 3.9
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.4 3.3 5.6
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.2 5.4 1.6
10 Max Strus CLE 13.0 5.2 3.8
11 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.4 8.7 1.7
12 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.0 4.0 1.6
13 Bennedict Mathurin IND 11.6 3.1 1.4
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.9 2.9 3.9
15 Obi Toppin IND 7.8 2.5 1.5
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.7 2.7 1.8
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.4 2.1 0.9
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.1 2.4 1.8
19 Chuma Okeke CLE 6.1 3.9 1.3
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.8 2.4 1.2
21 Jarace Walker IND 4.5 2.4 1.1
22 Ben Sheppard IND 4.2 1.9 0.8
23 Dean Wade CLE 4.2 3.4 1.1
24 Thomas Bryant IND 4.1 2.3 0.6
25 Johnny Furphy IND 3.7 2.3 0.9
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.7 5.5 0.5
27 Javonte Green CLE 3.3 2.1 0.6
28 Tony Bradley IND 3.2 3.3 0.5
29 James Johnson IND 2.1 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.