NBA games

CLE @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
109–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE23163832109
IND38422920129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home IND
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 27 21 1 6
Isaac Okoro 19 13 2 0
Donovan Mitchell S 20 12 1 0
Max Strus S 22 11 6 3
Jaylon Tyson 12 11 2 3
Evan Mobley S 27 10 5 0
Ty Jerome 18 7 2 0
De'Andre Hunter 16 5 4 1
Craig Porter Jr. 10 4 2 4
Chuma Okeke 5 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 21 21 6 3
Myles Turner S 22 20 7 3
Obi Toppin 21 20 5 2
Ben Sheppard 29 14 3 0
T.J. McConnell 18 13 2 8
Aaron Nesmith S 23 12 1 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 26 11 5 5
Andrew Nembhard S 30 7 3 7
Thomas Bryant 9 5 0 0
Jarace Walker 14 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes 6-foot dunk (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
10 Max Strus CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
21%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.4 5.0 5.6
2 Darius Garland CLE 21.0 3.4 6.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.2 5.4 8.8
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.8 9.1 3.2
5 Pascal Siakam IND 18.6 6.3 3.0
6 Ty Jerome CLE 15.8 3.2 4.2
7 Myles Turner IND 15.6 5.8 1.5
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.3 5.6 1.5
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.9 3.5 1.6
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.4 3.1 5.7
11 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.8 4.3 1.7
12 Max Strus CLE 12.6 5.1 4.3
13 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.5 9.6 1.7
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.9 2.8 3.5
15 Obi Toppin IND 6.5 2.4 1.5
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.3 2.7 1.7
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.7 2.2 0.9
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.5 2.2 1.4
19 Jarace Walker IND 5.4 3.1 1.4
20 Chuma Okeke CLE 4.7 3.3 1.1
21 Dean Wade CLE 4.6 3.4 1.1
22 Thomas Bryant IND 3.9 2.5 0.7
23 Tony Bradley IND 3.9 3.3 0.6
24 Ben Sheppard IND 3.6 1.9 1.0
25 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.5 1.7 0.7
26 Johnny Furphy IND 3.5 2.2 0.9
27 Javonte Green CLE 3.2 2.1 0.6
28 James Johnson IND 2.1 1.0 0.5
29 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.0 4.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.