Friday, May 9, 2025

CLE @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final

126–104

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CLE	32	34	31	29	126
IND	32	13	34	25	104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CLE) games this season

CLE away

home IND

44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Donovan Mitchell S	37	43	9	5	14/29	5/13	35
Max Strus S	33	20	7	7	8/12	4/8	32
Jarrett Allen S	31	19	12	2	6/11	0/0	38
Evan Mobley S	35	18	13	4	6/13	1/3	26
Darius Garland S	25	10	1	3	3/11	2/7	10
De'Andre Hunter	21	8	5	0	2/6	1/5	-14
Sam Merrill	20	3	1	2	1/5	1/5	18
Ty Jerome	13	2	1	0	1/8	0/4	-15
Craig Porter Jr.	3	2	1	0	1/1	0/0	-1
Isaac Okoro	4	1	0	0	0/1	0/0	-3

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Bennedict Mathurin	27	23	1	0	6/11	3/8	-7
Pascal Siakam S	28	18	4	3	8/14	1/4	-14
Myles Turner S	26	15	3	0	4/7	1/2	-26
T.J. McConnell	21	12	6	7	4/9	0/0	8
Andrew Nembhard S	26	10	4	4	4/9	2/4	-32
Aaron Nesmith S	27	7	7	1	3/7	1/4	-29
Obi Toppin	19	5	2	5	1/7	0/4	-3
Tyrese Haliburton S	30	4	0	5	2/8	0/1	-20
Ben Sheppard	6	3	2	0	1/1	1/1	2
James Johnson	5	3	1	0	1/1	0/0	2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:49 Q1

"Max Strus makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Donovan Mitchell CLE

11%

2 Evan Mobley CLE

10%

3 Pascal Siakam IND

10%

4 Ty Jerome CLE

5 Myles Turner IND

6 Tyrese Haliburton IND

7 Jarrett Allen CLE

8 Darius Garland CLE

9 Andrew Nembhard IND

10 Aaron Nesmith IND

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

20%

Dunk

Free Throw

21%

Jumper

23%

Layup

33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Donovan Mitchell	CLE	26.0	5.1	5.5	43	9	5
2	Darius Garland	CLE	19.3	3.3	6.7	10	1	3
3	Pascal Siakam	IND	18.9	6.5	3.2	18	4	3
4	Evan Mobley	CLE	18.5	8.2	3.2	18	13	4
5	Tyrese Haliburton	IND	18.5	5.6	9.1	4	0	5
6	Ty Jerome	CLE	18.0	3.4	4.6	2	1	0
7	Myles Turner	IND	15.7	6.3	1.6	15	3	0
8	De'Andre Hunter	CLE	14.0	4.0	1.6	8	5	0
9	Aaron Nesmith	IND	14.0	5.6	1.5	7	7	1
10	Andrew Nembhard	IND	12.5	3.1	5.4	10	4	4
11	Jarrett Allen	CLE	11.8	9.0	1.6	19	12	2
12	Bennedict Mathurin	IND	11.8	3.6	1.7	23	1	0
13	Max Strus	CLE	11.5	4.9	3.5	20	7	7
14	T.J. McConnell	IND	8.4	2.7	3.2	12	6	7
15	Obi Toppin	IND	6.7	2.6	1.3	5	2	5
16	Sam Merrill	CLE	6.5	2.6	1.6	3	1	2
17	Isaac Okoro	CLE	5.7	2.3	1.0	1	0	0
18	Craig Porter Jr.	CLE	5.6	2.4	1.6	2	1	0
19	Jarace Walker	IND	5.5	3.2	1.2	2	1	1
20	Chuma Okeke	CLE	4.6	3.3	1.0	—	—	—
21	Dean Wade	CLE	4.2	2.9	1.0	0	4	1
22	Ben Sheppard	IND	3.6	1.8	1.0	3	2	0
23	Jaylon Tyson	CLE	3.4	1.7	0.6	—	—	—
24	Thomas Bryant	IND	3.3	2.1	0.6	2	3	0
25	Tony Bradley	IND	2.8	2.3	0.3	0	1	0
26	Javonte Green	CLE	2.7	1.6	0.6	0	2	0
27	Johnny Furphy	IND	2.3	1.6	0.6	0	2	0
28	James Johnson	IND	2.1	1.1	0.6	3	1	0
29	Tristan Thompson	CLE	1.9	4.3	0.3	—	—	—

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.