NBA games

IND @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
120–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND15353436120
CLE32293721119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CLE
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 35 23 8 1
Aaron Nesmith S 33 23 4 1
Bennedict Mathurin 20 19 2 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 19 9 4
Andrew Nembhard S 36 13 7 13
Pascal Siakam S 30 12 6 4
Obi Toppin 16 7 2 1
T.J. McConnell 14 4 3 2
Ben Sheppard 6 0 1 0
Thomas Bryant 11 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 48 5 9
Max Strus S 39 23 8 4
Jarrett Allen S 38 22 12 3
Sam Merrill 26 14 4 0
Isaac Okoro 29 5 2 1
Dean Wade S 30 3 10 3
Ty Jerome S 28 2 2 3
Craig Porter Jr. 4 2 0 0
Javonte Green 10 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes driving layup (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
25%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.5 5.1 5.2
2 Darius Garland CLE 19.5 3.3 6.8
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.7 5.1 8.1
4 Pascal Siakam IND 18.6 6.5 2.9
5 Evan Mobley CLE 18.6 8.3 3.4
6 Ty Jerome CLE 17.7 3.4 4.8
7 Myles Turner IND 15.2 6.0 1.5
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 14.2 4.1 1.8
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.2 5.7 1.5
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.5 3.1 4.9
11 Bennedict Mathurin IND 11.8 3.7 1.7
12 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.7 8.3 1.8
13 Max Strus CLE 10.3 4.6 3.4
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.0 2.6 3.1
15 Obi Toppin IND 7.5 3.0 1.4
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.2 2.7 2.0
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.0 2.5 1.0
18 Jarace Walker IND 5.6 3.3 1.1
19 Chuma Okeke CLE 4.8 3.7 1.1
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.6 2.0 1.5
21 Dean Wade CLE 4.4 2.5 0.9
22 Thomas Bryant IND 4.0 2.5 0.6
23 Ben Sheppard IND 4.0 1.8 1.0
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.6 1.8 0.7
25 Tony Bradley IND 2.8 2.6 0.3
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.7 0.6
27 Javonte Green CLE 2.3 1.3 0.4
28 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.1 4.7 0.3
29 James Johnson IND 2.0 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.