NBA games

IND @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
121–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND36282829121
CLE25333222112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CLE
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 37 23 0 6
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 22 3 13
Pascal Siakam S 34 17 8 4
Aaron Nesmith S 25 17 8 0
Myles Turner S 33 13 11 1
Bennedict Mathurin 23 11 5 1
T.J. McConnell 15 7 1 2
Obi Toppin 15 7 5 2
Thomas Bryant 6 2 2 0
Jarace Walker 9 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 33 5 4
Ty Jerome 29 21 3 8
Evan Mobley S 36 20 10 2
Jarrett Allen S 30 12 5 1
De'Andre Hunter 30 11 4 1
Max Strus S 32 7 7 3
Sam Merrill S 18 6 4 4
Isaac Okoro 15 2 2 2
Dean Wade 16 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
2 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
4 Myles Turner IND
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
28%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.7 5.4 6.0
2 Darius Garland CLE 19.9 3.2 6.9
3 Evan Mobley CLE 19.0 7.9 3.4
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.2 4.6 10.1
5 Pascal Siakam IND 17.9 6.0 2.8
6 Ty Jerome CLE 17.8 3.3 4.5
7 Myles Turner IND 15.9 5.1 1.5
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 13.3 3.9 1.9
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.0 5.2 1.2
10 Bennedict Mathurin IND 11.7 3.5 1.7
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.4 3.3 4.1
12 Max Strus CLE 10.3 3.9 3.6
13 Jarrett Allen CLE 10.2 7.8 1.7
14 T.J. McConnell IND 7.5 2.6 3.0
15 Obi Toppin IND 7.4 2.8 1.1
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.9 2.6 0.9
17 Sam Merrill CLE 5.6 2.5 1.6
18 Jarace Walker IND 5.5 3.2 0.9
19 Chuma Okeke CLE 5.4 3.8 1.2
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.1 2.1 1.6
21 Dean Wade CLE 4.3 2.1 0.8
22 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.1 1.9 0.8
23 Tony Bradley IND 3.2 2.6 0.3
24 Thomas Bryant IND 3.1 2.1 0.4
25 Ben Sheppard IND 3.1 1.6 0.8
26 Javonte Green CLE 2.7 1.4 0.4
27 Johnny Furphy IND 2.6 1.7 0.6
28 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.4 4.8 0.4
29 James Johnson IND 2.1 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.