NBA games

LAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
101–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC26211935101
DEN21373527120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DEN
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 33 22 5 2
Kobe Brown 8 13 0 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 18 12 3 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 17 12 2 0
Ivica Zubac S 32 10 14 2
Norman Powell S 32 9 2 2
James Harden S 35 7 5 13
Cam Christie 7 5 1 0
Jordan Miller 7 4 1 4
Nicolas Batum 28 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 36 22 4 5
Christian Braun S 38 21 5 4
Nikola Jokic S 32 16 10 8
Russell Westbrook 27 16 5 5
Jamal Murray S 42 16 5 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 15 6 0
Peyton Watson 17 9 4 0
Julian Strawther 3 3 0 0
DeAndre Jordan 7 2 4 0
Jalen Pickett 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes layup (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
16%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
4 James Harden LAC
10%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
9%
7 Norman Powell LAC
9%
8 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
20%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.2 11.0 10.0
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.1 7.2 5.3
3 James Harden LAC 23.4 5.9 9.6
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.1 5.1 6.2
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.6 11.4 3.3
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.8 5.3 2.6
7 Norman Powell LAC 15.7 3.0 2.4
8 Christian Braun DEN 14.7 5.8 2.7
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.1 3.8 3.4
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 11.9 5.8 1.5
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.4 2.8 1.0
12 Kris Dunn LAC 8.0 3.1 1.9
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 7.8 2.5 2.4
14 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.4 3.5 1.2
15 Peyton Watson DEN 5.4 3.0 0.7
16 Amir Coffey LAC 4.7 1.1 0.8
17 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.8 1.6 0.6
18 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.2 1.2
19 Julian Strawther DEN 3.6 1.5 0.6
20 Dario Saric DEN 3.2 2.4 1.2
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 1.5 0.7
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.0 3.6 0.5
23 Patty Mills LAC 2.8 0.5 0.4
24 Drew Eubanks LAC 2.7 2.1 0.6
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.3 1.0 0.7
26 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.3 1.9 1.0
27 Jordan Miller LAC 2.1 1.1 0.6
28 Ben Simmons LAC 2.1 1.9 1.2
29 Cam Christie LAC 2.0 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.